Current month shows all 8 categories below 12-month trend
This article first appeared on SchiffGold.
According to the BLS, the economy added 315k jobs in August, which was on par with analyst estimates. While the job numbers continue to appear strong, a deeper look into the data shows some trends that may indicate weakness.
Figure 1: Change by sector
The number of people with multiple jobs has reached a post-pandemic high at 7.7M or 4.9% of the labor force. This is down from pre-Covid levels, but is increasing rapidly. Workers require more jobs to keep up with inflation.
Figure 2: Multiple Full Time Employees
An even bigger signal of the challenging economy is the number of people who have multiple full-time jobs. These are individuals who are working 80 hours a week at two different jobs to make ends meet. This figure has reached 440k workers, which is an all-time high! If the economy is so strong, why is there a record number of people working multiple full-time jobs?
Figure 3: Multiple Full Time Employees
Another area of weakness is the current value compared to recent history. All 8 categories are below the 12-month average as shown below.
Figure 4: Current vs TTM
The table below shows a detailed breakdown of the numbers. The aggregate 12-month average is 486k, which is well above the most recent month.
Key takeaways:
Monthly Average Change | Total % Change | ||||||||
Category | Total Employed | Current Month | 3 Months | 12 Months | 3 years | Current Month | 3 Months | 12 Months | 3 years |
Private Sector | |||||||||
Construction | 7,708 | 16 | 16.7 | 25.9 | 5.0 | 0.2% | 0.6% | 4.0% | 2.3% |
Education Health | 24,544 | 68 | 93.3 | 68.0 | 8.6 | 0.3% | 1.1% | 3.3% | 1.3% |
Financial | 8,981 | 17 | 11.7 | 16.7 | 5.4 | 0.2% | 0.4% | 2.2% | 2.2% |
Information | 3,032 | 7 | 16.3 | 13.8 | 4.6 | 0.2% | 1.6% | 5.5% | 5.4% |
Leisure Hospitality | 15,768 | 31 | 56.3 | 109.6 | -21.9 | 0.2% | 1.1% | 8.3% | -5.0% |
Manufacturing | 12,852 | 22 | 27.7 | 38.4 | 0.7 | 0.2% | 0.6% | 3.6% | 0.2% |
Mining and Logging | 641 | 7 | 7.0 | 5.6 | -2.3 | 1.1% | 3.3% | 10.5% | -12.8% |
Other Services | 5,705 | 7 | 6.3 | 16.9 | -5.2 | 0.1% | 0.3% | 3.6% | -3.3% |
Prof Business | 22,441 | 68 | 80.7 | 94.3 | 30.7 | 0.3% | 1.1% | 5.0% | 4.9% |
Trade Trans Utils | 28,838 | 65 | 61.0 | 85.9 | 30.8 | 0.2% | 0.6% | 3.6% | 3.8% |
Government | |||||||||
Government Federal | 2,863 | -2 | -1.7 | -1.9 | 0.2 | -0.1% | -0.2% | -0.8% | 0.3% |
Government Local | 14,120 | 6 | 5.0 | 11.3 | -11.2 | 0.0% | 0.1% | 1.0% | -2.9% |
Government State | 5,251 | 3 | -2.3 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.1% | -0.1% | 0.5% | 0.6% |
Total | |||||||||
All | 152,744 | 315 | 378.0 | 486.7 | 46.2 | 0.2% | 0.7% | 3.8% | 1.1% |
Values in 1,000s of workers. Data as of: Aug 2022. Total Employed = Entire size of the labor market. | |||||||||
While the headline number gets all the attention, the number is typically revised several times. Revisions over the last three months were net negative again for a third month. This is a big change from a few months ago. The 12-month average revision is +115k vs a 3-month average revision of -28.3k.
This means the more recent job numbers are weaker than the initial headline announcement.
3 Month Compare | 12 Month Compare | 3 Year Compare | |||||||
Category | Current | As Of Published | Avg Month Diff | Current | As Of Published | Avg Month Diff | Current | As Of Published | Avg Month Diff |
Private Sector | |||||||||
Construction | 69 | 81 | -4.0 | 297 | 273 | 2.0 | 170 | 283 | -3.1 |
Education Health | 290 | 292 | -0.7 | 777 | 651 | 10.5 | 299 | 222 | 2.1 |
Financial | 28 | 22 | 2.0 | 192 | 177 | 1.2 | 193 | 267 | -2.1 |
Information | 68 | 54 | 4.7 | 184 | 157 | 2.2 | 157 | 9 | 4.1 |
Leisure Hospitality | 207 | 247 | -13.3 | 1,486 | 1,081 | 33.8 | -782 | -630 | -4.2 |
Manufacturing | 80 | 77 | 1.0 | 480 | 399 | 6.8 | -2 | -23 | 0.6 |
Mining and Logging | 21 | 18 | 1.0 | 65 | 53 | 1.0 | -96 | -12 | -2.3 |
Other Services | 22 | 33 | -3.7 | 225 | 174 | 4.2 | -197 | 36 | -6.5 |
Prof Business | 243 | 238 | 1.7 | 1,147 | 929 | 18.2 | 1,055 | 547 | 14.1 |
Trade Trans Utils | 126 | 123 | 1.0 | 1,038 | 831 | 17.2 | 1,041 | 632 | 11.4 |
Government | |||||||||
Government Federal | -2 | 2 | -1.3 | -22 | -6 | -1.3 | 34 | 45 | -0.3 |
Government Local | 23 | 58 | -11.7 | 166 | -7 | 14.4 | -412 | -553 | 3.9 |
Government State | 30 | 45 | -5.0 | 7 | -49 | 4.7 | 48 | -286 | 9.3 |
Total | |||||||||
All | 1,205 | 1,290 | -28.3 | 6,042 | 4,663 | 114.9 | 1,508 | 537 | 27.0 |
Values in 1,000s of workers. Because this data is focused on revisions, it is as of the month prior: Jul 2022. "Current" shows the change in employment after revisions. "As Of Published" shows change in employment at time of release. "Avg Month Diff" shows the average monthly change from the revisions. | |||||||||
The chart below shows data going back to 1955. The Covid recession can be seen as the greatest job market loss ever.
The current unemployment rate ticked up to 3.7% which is the highest since February but well below the historical average. It was 3.5% last month.
Figure 5: Historical Labor Market
The labor force participation also increased this month, rising from 62.1% to 62.4%. It still sits a full percentage point below the pre-Covid levels of 63.4% and well below the 66% pre-Financial Crisis.
Figure 6: Labor Market Distribution
The headline job numbers continue to give Fed ammunition to talk about the “strong economy”. While 315k is a strong(ish) number, the details paint a bit weaker picture. Having multiple full-time job holders at all-time highs and recent revisions being negative, should give people pause.
The Fed is on its warpath and will continue to hike rates and shrink the balance sheet, using the strong employment numbers as support. They are moving far too fast to realize the damage they are inflicting on the economy. By the time the wreckage starts to manifest the Fed will have to reverse course extremely quickly. Unfortunately, by that point, it will likely be too late.
When the Fed tries to re-inflate the everything bubble, they will end up destroying the dollar. Gold and silver will offer the best protection.
Data Source: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PAYEMS and also series CIVPART
Data Updated: Monthly on first Friday of the month
Last Updated: Aug 2022
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