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Treasury Adds $1.1T of debt in last 4 months and $2T YTD
Majority of debt is short-term
The Technicals: Gold Still Looks Good, Silver Looks Even Better
The setup is bullish
Jobs: Household Survey Finally Tops Headline Number
It does not make up for all the previous weakness
Jobs: Household Survey Finally Tops Headline Number
Is the strong report tied to the upcoming election
CFTC CoTs Report: Be Advised - Gold is Overbought Among Hedge Funds
A quick exit could see a big down move in gold
August Money Supply Grows by Most Since December 2021
13 week also growing
Six of Eight Fed Inflation Categories are Above the 12-month Trend
Fed is not making much progress anymore
Jobs: A Weak Report is Even Weaker in the Details
Household Survey Continues to Show Extreme Weakness
Fed Shrinks Balance Sheet by Nearly $120B
Fed drops balance sheet across the spectrum
13 Week Money Supply Starts Rising
A big surge in recent weeks helps drive it higher
13 Week Money Supply Starts Rising
A big surge in recent weeks helps drive it higher
Comex Physical Gold: Demand Increases While Supply Falls
People are waking up
Comex Gold: October Open Interest is Double The Amount from Last Year
People are waking up
Comex Gold: October Open Interest is Double The Amount from Last Year
People are waking up
Federal Budget: May Deficit Soars to Almost 3x Above Average
Interest expense is nearing $1T
The Technicals: The Gold Market has Changed
Other variables point to a shallow correction
Comex: Gold Sees Highest Delivery Volume in Nearly 2 Years
Supply constraints are coming
13 Week Money Supply Hits Seasonal Stagnation
Money Supply more broadly increasing
Jobs: QCEW Shows Further Evidence of Wildly Inaccurate Headline Report
Two completely different labor markets
Treasury Finally Issues Some Long Term Debt
Majority of debt is short-term
Jobs: A Weak Report is Even Weaker in the Details
Household Survey Continues to Show Extreme Weakness
CFTC CoTs Report: Managed Money Still Driving Prices
Recent activity suggest price advances were not overbought
Money Supply is Moving Back Up
Fed Still Accommodative
Comex: Gold Sees Highest Delivery Volume in Nearly 2 Years
Supply constraints are coming
Federal Budget: Interest Payments Reach $750B
January is typically a surplus but is not this year
Jobs: You NEED to Look at the Household Survey
The divergences are getting even bigger
Fed Balance Sheet Shrinks by Smallest Amount in a Year
One year out since SVB went under
Money Supply Sees Some Deceleration
Fed Still Accommodative
Is the Comex Showing an Impending Price Spike in Silver?
Interest is definitely elevated
The Technicals: Looking Beyond Price Action
Other variables point to a shallow correction
Jobs: Household Report is Way Below a Weak Headline Number
Biggest divergence to Household Survey
Is the Comex Showing an Impending Price Spike in Silver?
Interest is definitely elevated
Money Supply Sees Major Jump in Recent Weeks
Fed Still Accommodative
Jobs: Household Report Jumps but QCEW Shows Job Market is Not as Strong
QCEW Shows Weaker Reports
Yellen Continues Betting on Interest Rate Declines
Majority of debt is short-term
Money Supply Dips for First Time Since November
Fed Still Accommodative
CFTC CoTs Report: Managed Money Still Driving Prices
Recent activity suggest price advances were not overbought
Is Someone About to Stress the Comex
Gold is showing incredible strength
Jobs: Massive Revisions and Household Survey Tell the Real Story
Can Headline Number be Considered Reliable?
Money Supply Growth Continues to Support the Stock Market
Fed is no longer tight
Comex Delivery Volumes Reach Highest Levels in Months
Both metals are above trend
Federal Budget: Interest Payments Reach $750B
January is typically a surplus but is not this year
Jobs: The Household Survey Tells a Different Story
Headline number continues to defy logic
Janet Yellen Bets $2T that Rates Will NOT be Higher For Longer
Yellen is not gambling, she is making an informed decision
Fed Misses the Target Again
MBS Reduction has still never come close
Rebound in Money Supply Will Prove Too Little, Too Late
The fall in liquidity will lead to a crisis
Rebound in Money Supply Will Prove Too Little, Too Late
The fall in liquidity will lead to a crisis
Comex Countdown: The Pressure Grows in Silver and Platinum
Both metals are above trend
Comex Now Has 28 Paper Claims for Each Physical Ounce of Registered Silver
Increase will likely be undone soon
Comex Now Has 28 Paper Claims for Each Physical Ounce of Registered Silver
Increase will likely be undone soon
Federal Budget: TTM Deficit Surges by an Incredible $980B YoY
Revenue windfall continues to dissipate
Energy Disguises a Pretty Bad Inflation Number
The YoY drop was expected
Energy Disguises a Pretty Bad Inflation Number
The YoY drop was expected
Inflation is Proving to be Quite Sticky
Fed is not making much progress anymore
Federal Budget: TTM Deficit Surges by an Incredible $980B YoY
Revenue windfall continues to dissipate
Energy Disguises a Pretty Bad Inflation Number
The YoY drop was expected
Will the Next Debt Ceiling Debate Conclude in Abolishment?
How much debt will acrue over the next two years?
Trade Deficit Surges to Highest Level in Six Months
how long can the US benefit from the reserve currency?
Trade Deficit Surges to Highest Level in Six Months
how long can the US benefit from the reserve currency?
CFTC CoTs Report: Managed Money Drives Price Drop
Recent activity suggest price advances were not overbought
CFTC CoTs Report: Managed Money Drives Price Drop
Recent activity suggest price advances were not overbought
Jobs: The Household Survey Tells a Different Story
Headline number continues to defy logic
Jobs: The Household Survey Tells a Different Story
Headline number continues to defy logic
Fed Reduces Treasury Bill Balance By Over $100B in May
What are they preparing for?
Fed Reduces Treasury Bill Balance By Over $100B in May
What are they preparing for?
Gold Has Record Number of Contracts Cash Settle to Start June Delivery
How much metal is really left?
Comex Delivery Countdown: June Shows Promise
Both metals are above trend
13-Week Money Supply Growth Crashes to -7.2%
The fall in liquidity will lead to a crisis
Comex Increase in Inventories does Little to Move the Needle
Increase will likely be undone soon
Inflation is Proving to be Quite Sticky
Fed is not making much progress anymore
Federal Budget: TTM Deficit Surges to $1.9T as Tax Revenues Collapse
Revenue windfall continues to dissipate
The CPI is Two Months Away From Bottoming Before the Next Leg Up
The next move up will be vicious
Multiple Factors Turn a Weak Employment Report Strong
Birth Death model and Adjustments boost job numbers
US Debt: Net Interest to Exceed $700B by November
Debt Ceiling Still in Play
US Debt: Net Interest to Exceed $700B by November
Debt Ceiling Still in Play
Gold Contracts for Immediate Delivery Explode Higher
JP Morgan restocks supplies
Falling Trade Deficit Suggests a Weakening US Economy
Inflation is also taking a bite
CFTC CoTs Report: Price Drivers Go Beyond the Futures Market
Maaneged Money is still in control, but there are other factors at play
Silver Sees Record Number of Contracts Close in Final Day
Comex is up against the wall
Bank Term Funding Program Reaches New All-Time High
Don't let the reduction fool you
13-Week Money Supply Reaches New All-Time Low
Adjusted M2 also contracts by largest amount ever
Comex Update: Silver Shorts Could be in Trouble
Gold has also seen decent strength
JP Morgan on the Ropes in Gold as Silver Coverage Reaches Record Low
Silver Registered Ratio reaches new all-time high
Getting the CPI back to 2% is a Fantasy
The Fed is running out of time
TTM Net Interest Expense Exceeds Half a Trillion Dollars
The Fed is out of room to move
Jobs Report: 7 of 8 Categories Below 12-month Trend
Household Survey is much larger than the headline report
Services Surplus Falls 7.3% MoM
TTM Trade Deficit Still Near $1T
CFTC CoTs Report: Price Drivers Go Beyond the Futures Market
Maaneged Money is still in control, but there are other factors at play
Comex Reins in Platinum but Sees Gold Deliveries Rise
Silver exodus continues
The Fed Prints $324B in March As QE Restarts
The Fed is now losing money
Money Supply is Flashing Red
Something else will break soon
Comex Update: Delivery Volume Slows Even as Prices Rise
The market is looking "too" quiet
If the Ongoing Comex Vault Run Picks up Steam, it Will Be Game Over Immediately
How much longer can the Comex sustain these outflows?
Falling Energy Prices Disguise a Relatively Hot CPI
What happens when Energy turns back up?
Household Survey is 40% below Headline Number
Employment is a lagging indicator
Treasury Prints Second Largest February Budget Deficit Ever
Deficits continue to move in the wrong direction
Services Surplus Falls 7.3% MoM
TTM Trade Deficit Still Near $1T
Annualized Interest Up $230B or 75% Since Last Year
Debt Ceiling Still in Play
Comex Results: Silver Has 60% of March Open Interest Roll in Final Day
More strange activity at the Comex
Money Supply Remains Well Below Trend
This market needs more drugs
Comex Update: Palladium Contracts Represent 280% of Available Metal with 2 Days to Go
Silver looks strong heading into First Notice
The Fed Books a Loss of $126B in February
Reduction in MBS has stqgnated
Comex Vaults: Gold Sees Nearly 5% Inventory Decline in a Month
How much longer can the Comex sustain these outflows?
CPI: Relief from the SPR Drain has Ended
CPI annualizes to over 6.6%
Budget Deficit YoY: Revenues Fall as Expenses Rise
Net Interest continues moving up
The Treasury Begins Extaordinary Measures (again)
Interest costs are exploding upwards
2022 Trade Deficit Signals Inflation Closer to 15%
Goods consumption is likely flat or down, people are just paying more
Is it Time to Drop the "L" in the BLS?
How does the current report give with anything we have seen over the last few months?
Comex Results: Gold Sees Massive One Day Roll While Silver Adjustments Break Records
More strange activity at the Comex
QT Falls Short Yet Again and the Fed Lost Almost $100B in January
The balance sheet tightening is not going as planned
Comex Update: Gold Deliveries Pick Up Late in the Contract
Gold is middle of the pack
Money Supply Contracts in 2022 for the First Time on Record
This is an epic reversal that could spell serious trouble for the market and economy
Comex Inventory Withdrawals Have Slowed but not Stopped
Is the metal gone?
Budget Deficit Exceeds $1.4T in 2022
Surging revenues are not enough
CPI: Saved by Falling Energy Prices
Inflation never goes straight up
US Debt Hits the Ceiling - Interest Payments Keep Growing
Interest costs are exploding upwards
The Real Jobs Report is Way Worse Than the Headline Suggests
Looking at the other data sheds light on the situation
Trade Deficit Falls Due to Weak Consumer
Weak consumer cannot import as many goods
A Bet on Bitcoin is Gambling on the Whales
The market is being artificially propped up
Managed Money Ends 2023 on Bullish Note
Hedge Funds are bying back into the gold market
Did Platinum Just Break the Comex?
There is not enough supply to satisfy demand
The Fed has missed the MBS Target Reduction Every Month
The math is not on the Feds side
Money Supply Growth Continues Massive Divergence from History
This is an epic collapse that could spell serious trouble for the market and economy
Comex Update: Platinum Shorts On Edge While Silver Longs Still Wait
Gold is middle of the pack
Gold and Silver are Setting up for a Strong Advance in 2023
The coiled spring gets tighter
Silver Registered Ratio Falls to 11.1% - the Lowest in at Least 22 Years
Are the vaults out of metal?
Budget Deficit: Is the Surge In Tax Revenues Over?
Fiscal year 2022 closes with another record in revenue
CPI: History Suggests the Inflation Fight Might Just be Starting
Inflation never goes straight up
TTM Trade Deficit Reaches New Record $982B
Trade Deficit is Surging Again
Annualized Interest Set to Exceed $700B by July, up $400B in Two years
This is a runaway freight train
Is Managed Money Buying this Bull Market?
Physical Demand combined with Paper Demand could send prices soaring
Fed Has $48B Loss in November and Sees Massive Balance Sheet Reduction
Is the Fed making up for missed months
Comex Results: Why is December so Quiet?
Gold is starting to look like silver did
Money Supply Growth Rate sees an Epic Divergence from Previous Years
This is an epic collapse that could spell serious trouble for the market and economy
The Technical Picture: Can the metals hold support?
A sizeable rally now needs time to consolidate
Comex Vaults See Seventh Straight Month of Outflows
Ratio of contracts to registered has reached 20
Bitcoin Hodlers: Time is Running Out to Convert Nothing into Something
This market is being propped up by the whales. How much longer can they hold it?
Budget Deficit: Annual Interest Expense Increases 40% Compared to Last October
Fiscal year 2022 closes with another record in revenue
CPI: Annualized Pace of Increase is Still over 5%
The window for the Fed is closing
Treasury Prepares for Another Debt Ceiling Saga
Interest costs are exploding upwards
Trade Deficit: The First Deficit Increase in Six Months
Trade Deficit increases on falling Exports and Rising Imports
Comex Results: This Game Has Changed
Open Interest relative to Registered is exploding
Will Managed Money Get Stuck Holding the Short Straw?
Managed Money is dominating the price for now, but that could change quickly
The Fed is Still Coming up Short on QT
October QT Falls short of $95B target
Money Supply Growth Rate is Still Negative
This poses major risks for stocks and the market at large
The Technical Picture: More Time is Needed Before a Sustainable Rally Begins
The CFTC Increased Margin to Cap the Advance in Silver
Student Loan Forgiveness Creates Largest September Deficit Ever
Fiscal year 2022 closes with another record in revenue
Comex Update: The Metal Will be Gone in Months
This has been a strategic and deliberate extraction
Comex Inventory: 17.4 Paper Ounces of Silver for Each Registered Ounce
This game of musical chairs will end soon
CPI: This Game of Chicken is Almost Over
The Fed has no excuse to stop hiking until something breaks
Jobs Report: 7 of 8 Categories are Below Trend While Revisions are Negative Again
Current month shows all 8 categories below 12-month trend
Treasury Locks in Higher Rates for Longer Despite Exploding Interest Costs
Interest costs are exploding upwards
Trade Deficit: Are Falling Imports Further Sign of Recession?
Trade Deficit almost 40% below recent records
CoTs Report: Managed Money Hammers Gold for 7th Straight Week
This the longest such streak since August 2018
Comex: Platinum Shorts Live to See Another Day
This could be early signs for what's happening in gold and silver
Surprise! Another Month = Another Failed Attempt at QT
September did not prove to be the first month of major run-off
Calling the Fed’s Bluff: They are Holding a Losing Hand
The math shows the Fed cannot stick to their plan
Collapse in Money Supply is Still a Major Risk for the Market
Money supply still deep in negative territory
Price Analysis: Support Becomes Resistance
The market is due for a bounce but it might be short lived
Comex Update: September Gold Delivery Volume Blasts Higher
Strength in gold continues
Comex Stock Report: The Vaults are Still Bleeding
Gold and silver continue to leave the vault at an alarming rate
August CPI Shows Inflation Getting Stickier
The Fed's runway continues to get shorter
Treasury Runs Largest August Deficit Ever as Interest Costs Soar
Record Revenues are not keeping pace with spending
Trade Deficit Still Historically High Despite Fall Since March
Trend should be easier to identify in the months ahead
US Debt: Annualized Interest Surges More Than $22B in a Single Month
Interest costs are exploding upwards
CFTC Report: Silver Net Short Position Reaches New High for the Move
Sentiment is extremely negative
Jobs Report: Multiple Full-time Job Holders Reaches All-Time High
Current month shows all 8 categories below 12-month trend
Is the Fed Worried About the Mortgage Market?
Fed has been unable to reduce holdings of MBS over the last 3 months
BofA Backstops Strong Delivery Volume in Silver
Silver and Gold Both Strong but for Different Reasons
Comex Update: House Accounts See Largest Net Delivery Volume on Record
Strength in gold continues
13 Week Money Supply Growth Hits Multi-Decade Low
Money supply falls deeper into negative territory
Gold and Silver Price Analysis: Caution is Warranted in the Short-Term
The Fed will pivot but the market doesn't see it yet
Comex Inventories Plummet - Is a "Vault-Run" Underway?
Gold inventories are down 18% since May with Silver Registered down 41% since March
July CPI Pauses - Is Peak Inflation Over?
Once the Fed returns to easing, inflation will surge again
Treasury Runs Second Largest July Deficit of All Time
A fall in Individual Taxes is very concerning
US Debt: The Sting of Higher Interest Rates is Just Getting Started
Interest costs have increased by $65B or 22% in 7 months
Is a Falling Deficit Further Proof of Recession?
The Government cannot ignore this recession forever
CFTC Report: Are the Shorts About to Get Squeezed?
Market is extreely oversold
Comex Deliveries: August Gold Starts Strong
Metal is leaving Comex at an accerlerated pace
Fed Balance Sheet: Too Little Too Late
Fed is closer to the end then the beginning of their tightening cycle
Money Supply Growth Rate Drops Below 2008
13-week annualized growth has turned negative
Comex Update: Gold Sees Massive Delivery Volume Mid-Month
Backwardation shows huge demand for physical
Technical Analysis: Is This Capitulation?
Will FOMC and GDP be the spark?
Comex Stock Report: Why is Backwardation Causing a Collapse in Registered?
Backwardation should have the opposite effect
June YoY CPI was Horrific - The Next Three Months Could be Worse
Energy may cool, but low numbers from last year are coming off the board
Treasury Fails to Capitalize on Record Tax Revenues
Annual spending is still near \$6T
Treasury Interest Cost Will Soar Past $500B in the Months Ahead
Treasury is still converting short-term to long-term
Jobs Report: Revisions Have Turned Negative
Job growth continues to slow versus 12-month trend
Jobs Report: Revisions Have Turned Negative
Job growth continues to slow versus 12-month trend
Yearly Trade Deficit Approaches $1T
July could be break the $1T ceiling
CFTC Report Shows the Most Neutral Precious Metals Market in Years
Increase in Short Positioning pushes market to a neutral stance
Did the Fed Forget to Start QT?
Fed Balance Sheet Reduces by $1B versus $45B promised
Comex Results: Gold and Silver Fail to Deliver
Silver has weakest delivery volume in several years
Money Supply Growth Slows Enough to Pop the Everything Bubble but not Enough to Cure Inflation
13-week annualized growth is crashing
The Technicals: Gold Correction is at or Near Completion
Downside looks limited
The Technicals: Gold Correction is at or Near Completion
Downside looks limited
Technical Analysis: Gold is Building Solid Support
Silver is stuck between industrial and monetary metal
Comex Countdown: What's Really Going on With Silver?
Don't be fooled by tight trading ranges
Comex Inventory: Gold Outflows Accelerate While Silver Sees Significant Shuffling
Pledged gold is approaching a new record
CBO Does Not Expect Revenue Surge to Last
CBO can also not explain a third of the surge
Peak inflation Still Ahead as 97.5% of the CPI is Above the 12-Month Average
Rebound in Energy sparks highest inflation in 40 years
Yearly Trade Deficit Sets New Record Despite MoM Decrease
Could a fall in Imports be due to less discretionary income?
Treasury Scrambles to Lock in Rates as Borrowing Costs Soar
Treasury converts $370B of short-term to long-term over three months
CFTC: Hedge Funds Cover Brief Net Short Position in Silver
Gold has also seen a major reduction in long interest
Hiring slows in 5 of 8 sectors
Job growth is decelerating
Comex Delivery Update: Shorts are Dragging Their Feet Again
Demand for delivery remains healthy
Foreign Holders Join the Fed in Reducing Holdings
Fed Balance Sheet Reduction Commences
Monthly M2 Contracts for the First Time in Over 12 Years
13-week annualized growth is crashing
The Technicals: How Much Further is the Gold and Silver Correction?
Momentum has been lost
Technical Analysis: Has Thie Pullback Run Its Course?
The Fed can only keep talking for so long
Comex Countdown: Gold Shows Strength while Silver Sees Cash Settlement
Gold is clearly catching a bid behind the scenes
Comex: Total Inventory Grows but Supply to Meet Delivery Shrinks
More metal is being put into Eligible
CPI: Nearly 70% of the CPI is Above the 12-Month Average
MoM increase of 0.34% is higher than expectations
Federal Surplus: Did the Treasury Just See Peak Revenue?
April shatters previous surplus record
Was March a Strong Jobs Report? Maybe...
The BLS Modesl are anticipating stronger than average job growth later this year
A New Paradigm: Interest Grows Even When Total Debt Shrinks
What happens when the debt starts growing again?
Trade Deficit Explodes 22.3% MoM and 53.8% YoY
TTM Imported Goods Rises Above $3T
Comex Results: May is Quiet, but June Looks Strong in Both Metals
Underlying data shows strength in gold and silver
CFTC: Swaps Have Increased Gold Short Position by More than 1,300% since Nov 2015
Gold price has held up well in the face of massive selling from Hedge Funds
Can the Fed Pull Off a Magic Trick?
New Record is Reached Intra-month
Money Supply Growth Rate Continues to Decelerate
How much longer can markets stay levitated as Fed pulls liquidity?
Technical Analysis: Will $1900 Hold?
Will the Fed's bluff push precious metals lower
Comex Countdown: Are Banks Forgetting Silver to Focus on Gold?
May should be another strong month for gold
The Technicals: Is $2000 Support or Resistance?
Another headfake or is this the real deal?
The Surge in Gold Inventory Continues at Comex
Inventory is highest since August 2021
Treasury Runs Smallest Q1 Deficit Since 2016
Surging revenues have been a major windfall - will it continue?
CPI 1.2% MoM and 8.6% YoY - Is this Peak Inflation?
Will a recession slow price increases?
Comex Update: Spreads, House Accounts, and a US Debt Chart
Market Contango is growing
Annualized Interest on US Debt Increased $16.4B in 6 Months
...and the Fed is just getting started
Trailing Twelve Month Trade Deficit Exceeds $900B
Deficit relative to GDP is surging
Hedge Funds Have Room to Push Gold Higher
Down 40k Net Longs from the March Peak, Hedge Funds have dry powder to work with
Quantitative Easing Has Seemingly Ended (for now)
The Fed will be back sooner than they want
Was March a Strong Jobs Report? Maybe...
The BLS Modesl are anticipating stronger than average job growth later this year
Gold Enters April Delivery on a Strong Note
May and June continue to see abnormaly high demand
Comex April Countdown: Silver Pops Higher with Gold Trending Strong
April, May, and June are showing strength in gold
Money Supply Growth is Rapidly Decelerating
Could this put downward pressure on the stock market?
The Technicals: Next Week could be the Most Important Week for Gold in Years
Another headfake or is this the real deal?
Technical Analysis: Resting Between Fragile Support and Weak Resistance
Gold and silver enter a consolidation pattern
Banks Are Restocking Gold at Fastest Pace in Years
Are the banks preparing for massive delivery volume?
Bulls Beware the Margin Lever
Are the big players letting prices run?
Treasury Runs Largest Deficit in 8 Months After First Surplus in 2.5 Years
Revenues surged 16.7% compared to last February
Unrounded MoM CPI: 0.65% - Price Increases are Widespread
Inflation is infecting every part of the economy
Comex Update: First Gold and Now Silver
Silver is flashing a warning sign similar to gold
Trade Deficit: Another Record Shattered
Trade Deficit Surges 9.4% to $89.7B
Treasury Adds Another $94B in Short-Term Debt
Total debt increased $278B
February was a Strong Jobs Report Across All Measures
Seasonal adjustments are anticipating robust job growth in the spring and summer
Comex Results: February Becomes the Month of Adjustments
In the last day for contracts to roll, silver open interest was adjusted down 30%
CFTC: Managed Money Did Not Drive Year-End Price Surge
Hedge Funds have weak hands
The Fed Pulls Back on Treasuries but Dives in on MBS
Fed Still Manages to Add $68B in February
Seasonal Adjustments - Did Money Supply Expand or Contract?
Non-Seasonally Adjusted M2 Collapsed
Comex Countdown: 1 Day to Go - March Delivery Could Set Records
Activity is showing people want physical
Teh Technicals: A Healthy Correction
All markets consolidate
The Technicals: Is the Rally Sustainable?
Is gold simply getting a bid from the pending Russia invasion?
Comex Vaults See Inventory Fall 3% in the Last Month
The outflows have accelerated in recent weeks
Comex Countdown: Feb, March, and April All Flashing Yellow
Convergence of outlier trends have emerged
Comex Countdown: 2 Days to Go as War Begins
Convergence of outlier trends have emerged
Treasury Realizes First Surplus in Nearly 2.5 Years
Will it last?
Unrounded MoM CPI: 0.65% - Price Increases are Widespread
Inflation is infecting every part of the economy
2021 Trade Deficit Shatters Historical Record Set Back in 2006
The trend is likely to continue
Are There Tremors in the Gold Market?
Multiple indicators are flashing yellow
Treasury Increases Short-Term Debt by $200B as Total Debt Crosses $30T
Short-term debt poses greatest risk to Treasury
Don't get too excited, most of these revised job gains were already counted
Major revisions have pulled job growth from last summer into the last few months
What is the Comex Gold Market Signaling?
Jan, Feb, and March are all acting strange
Fed Struggles to Taper - Adds Over $100B in January
Will the Fed find it just as hard to raise interest rates?
Money Supply Grows at 13.1% in 2021 - Is it enough to keep the bubble going?
Seasonally adjusted M2 is rapidly closing in on $22T
Gold and Silver May Need a Breather Before Moving Higher
All markets consolidate
The Technicals: Will $1800 Hold
Gold and silver both show promise but need to follow through
Comex Countdown: BofA House Strikes Back
January sees extremely strong demand in both gold and silver
Last Month Proves to be an Outlier - Metal is Leaving Comex Vaults Again
How will increased delivery volume affect Comex inventory in the months ahead?
Can the Deficit Fall Below $1 Trillion in 2022?
Will Tax Revenues Continue to Surge?
Is Omicron Hiding Much Higher Inflation?
A slow down in energy prices disguises a high inflation number
December Jobs: All but One Category are Way Behind 12-Month Trend
On average, the job market slows after the holiday season
Treasury adds $709B to the Debt in a Single Month
Who is going to absorb all the new debt as the Fed Tapers?
Comex House Accounts get Crushed in December: The Canary?
House Accounts see Largest Outflow on Record
Goods Deficit Approaches $100B
A data anomaly will not rescue the trade deficit next month
CFTC: Managed Money Did Not Drive Year-End Price Surge
Hedge Funds have weak hands
Comex Delivery Results: Will Momentum Continue in January?
Mid-Month contracts opening could drive both to Jan Records
Has the Taper Really Started? Who Will Fill the Massive Gap?
The Fed has Quadrupled International Treasury Purchases Since August 2019
November Money Supply: Similar and Different to Nov 1972
Seasonally adjusted M2 grows at $250B or 15.1% Annualized increase
Comex Countdown: December Delivery Surges and January Looks Strong
Gold sees lots of new contracts after First Notice
The Technicals: Yet Another Battle at $1800
Gold lost momentum last month but is trying to recover
Comex Stock Report: JP Morgan Refill the Coffers
How deep is the real supply at the Comex?
Tax Revenues Surge 20% Compared to 2020 and 2019, Will it Last?
$2.7T Trailing Twelve Month Deficit up 164% compared to Nov 2019
Expectations are Finally High Enough for Sky High Inflation
Shelter is finally starting to creep up
Data Anomaly causes October Trade Deficit to Shrink
$8B in Exported Goods were pulled forward from September to October
US Debt: The Landscape has Changed and the Fed can do Nothing About it
A 1% increase in rates is nearly 50% more costly in Notes and Bills than even 3 years ago
Hedge Fund are Driving Price Action in the Gold Market
Hedge Funds have weak hands
Jobs Analysis: What if Leisure and Hospitality has Fully Recovered?
Does little movement in gold mean the buyers are exhausted?
Gold and Silver Delivery Requests Near 1 Year Highs, Prompting Cash Settlements
Why are contracts cash settling?
What Taper? Fed adds $126B in November
Fed Increases MBS by $80B
Someone Took Immediate Delivery of 741 Comex Silver Contracts in November (so far)
Contracts opened after the close is nearing a record
Money Supply Growth Accelerates Into Year End
Growth Rate is nearing a record for this time of year
Will Gold Blast Through $1900 on a Brainard Nomination This Weekend?
Gold's head must hurt from hitting it's head so many times on $1870
Comex Vaults See Another Big Fall in Invetory
Recent trends of declining inventory continues
CPI Blasts past expectations, up .95% MoM with Widespread Increases
Will the opening economy spark even more inflation?
Budget Deficit Represents Greater than 35% of Total Expenditures
MoM Deficit increased 170%
Strong Jobs Creates Buying in Gold? Is all the bad news priced in?
Strong Jobs numbers across the board
Treasury Binges in October, Adding Almost Half a Trillion in Debt
And the debt spiral continues...
Sept Trade Deficit Smashes June Record by 10.5%
Exported Goods Collapse
Hedge Funds Increase Net Longs 180% in Gold and 726% in Silver During October
Gold and Silver Bulls Finally Show Up
November Comex Delivery Analysis
Silver continues downward trend while Gold October is hard to categorize
Did the Fed Experiment with a Mini-Taper and Fail?
Fed Balance Sheet Now Exceeds $8.5T
M2 Grows Almost 10% Annualized and Nears $21T
13 Week Money supply has begun accelerating again
Fiscal Spending up 18.7% MoM and 4.1% YoY
Increased tax revenues created a temporary windfall for the Treasury
Price Analysis: Gold Diverges from Bonds as Critical Test Looms at $1800
Rising gold in the face of rising yields is a very bullish
Comex Countdown: Quiet Before the Storm?
October and November are quietly showing strength
Gold and Silver Comex Vaults Both See 1% Fall in Total Inventory
Recent trends of declining inventory continues
A More Accurate CPI is up .97 MoM and 7.1 YoY
The Fallacy of Owners Equivalent Rent
Another Big Jobs Miss: All but two categories are below the 12 month trend
Economy adds a meager 194k vs 500k expected
Surge in Services Imported Sends Trade Deficit to New Record
Imported Goods was close to record while Imported Services jumps
Hedge Fund Pile into Short Positions During September
Both gold and silver see massive draw downs in Managed Money Net Longs
Delivery Results: Silver Down and Gold Mixed
Silver continues downward trend while Gold October is hard to categorize
Fed absorbs 60B of 1-5 Year US Treasuries in September
Fed adds another 115B to the balance sheet in Total
M2 Grows at Fastest Pace Since February
M2 increased at an annual rate of 16.5% in September
Aug 2021: Gold & Silver Bullish or Bearish?
Is the HUI signaling a down move?
Comex Countdown: Will Gold Lead Silver Higher
Gold has seen physical demand increase while silver is still drifting lower
Gold and Silver both drain from Comex Inventory
Recent trends of declining inventory continues
Based on the data, the dip in CPI may prove "transitory"
The shuttering of the economy appears to be the main driver for a lower than expected CPI
US Budget Deficit is 171B in August
Tax revenues are down, but spending has fallen more rapidly in HHS and SBA
US Budget Deficit is 171B in August
Tax revenues are down, but spending has fallen more rapidly in HHS and SBA
Did the Treasury raid 250B from Government Retirement Accounts (again)?
With the debt ceiling in place, the Treasury is using "extrodinary" measures to keep the Government funded
Commitment of Traders shows a potentially very bullish setup in Gold and Silver
The most recent washout was larger in relative size than the Covid washout
Big Jobs Miss: Leisure and Hospitality add zero jobs
Economy adds a meager 235k vs 720k expected
Jul MoM Trade Deficit Shrinks but TTM hits New Record
-807B Trailing Twelve Month Trade Deficit is largest ever
Delivery Results: Gold and Silver both Underwhelm
After a decent showing for August futures, both metals have fallen to 12 month lows
While Fed Talks about Taper, Balance Sheet Grows 111B in Aug
Fed adds almost 85b in Treasuries and 53B in MBS
MoM Money Supply rebounds but trend is down
13 week annualized growth is collapsing
Sep 21 Delivery Countdown
Gold shows life, Silver is mixed
Aug 2021: Gold & Silver Bullish or Bearish?
Is the HUI signaling a down move?
Comex Inventory Aug
Gold slowly drains but Silver surges
US Deficit increases 73% MoM in July as tax season ends
Some spending categories are starting to normalize, but the US has reached a new normal in spending
CPI 2021-07: Many price categories are still increasing
The Fed is hoping inflation is transitory because it cannot implement tools to fight it
Jobs 2021-07: Government Jobs Account for almost a quarter of gains
The labor market continues to recover, probably due to expiring unemployment benefits
Trade Deficit Jun 21 sets New record of 75.7B
June 2021 Trade Deficit sets a new record, eclipsing previous record in March
US Debt 2021-07: Total Debt Shrinks by 101B into Debt Ceiling Saga
Why did they treasury allow debt to mature rather than using the limitless debt ceiling to increases cash positions?
CFTC COTS Analysis July 2021
Gold longs increase while silver longs decrease.
Comex Results: August 2021 Deliveries
Silver stays strong, Gold deliveries continue to fall
Fed Balance Sheet: July 2021
The latest month of 143B added was above average
Money Supply July 2021
Money Supply Growth Rate Collapses
Comex Countdown: Mid July 2021
Silver off-month rises
Gold and Silver Pricing Update: Mid July 2021
Gold 50 DMA attempts to breakthrough 200 DMA
US Budget Deficit Analysis: June 2021
Spending continues to outstrip taxes by a wide margin
US Debt Analysis: June 2021
Treasury converting short term debt to medium term
Comex Stock Update: July 2021
Silver continues to drain, Gold sees more supply come in
Trade Deficit Analysis: May 2021
Trade Deficit falls just short of record $75B in March 2021
Comex June/July 2021 Update
Silver nears records, Gold losing momentum
The Fed in a Box, Part 2: They cannot end Quantitative Easing
The recent fall in long-term rates may have been by design and is probably transitory
The Fed in a Box, Part 1: They cannot raise interest rates
Higher interest rates would create a massive burden on the Treasury as the cost to service debt would increase dramatically
Setting up an AWS analytics server and API in minutes
The steps to stand up an AWS server that can be used to host an analytics dashboard and/or a data feed API
Why Silver is different than GameStop
The Silver market started changing a year ago with increased physical delivery
What is the Comex
Informational post to provide context for Comex Updates
The Ultimate Dollar Cost Averaging Strategy
Dollar cost averaging is designed to invest by reducing the risk of market timing. Use etrader and AWS to automatically invest a set amount on each trading day.
Automated trading and investing using RStudio on AWS
Set up a trading server in minutes. R offers multiple packages that connect to trading APIs. Trading scripts can be deployed and fully automated, for 12 months free and $3 a month thereafter.
Analyzing the S&P 500 with FMP
Financial Modeling Prep (FMP) is a new service that offers a range of financial metrics through an API. Use fmpcloudr to access the data and analyze it in R.
Trade on TD Ameritrade with R
Execute trades through TD Ameritrade using the `rameritrade` package in R. Zero previous programming experience required!
Target Asset Allocation
Stocks have the best track record, especially in the US. Bonds have limited upside with lots of downside. Gold is the best insurance policy.
Analyzing the US Debt
The US Federal Government has an unsustainable growth in debt. Can it continue longer than most think? When will the US Debt bubble pop?
Homeownership Opportunity Cost
Part 3 of 3: Is buying a home the great investment everyone believes it is?
Average Stock Market Returns
Part 2 of 3: The market looks expensive and due for a correction, is it worth waiting? What does history show about investing at different times.
The Power of Compound Interest
Part 1 of 3: Is your daily coffee costing you $1,000,000?
Libertarian Part 4: Moving Forward
Living in a world that feels backwards
Libertarian Part 3: The Greatest Failed Experiment
Limited government proved too succssful for its own good
Libertarian Part 2: Fiscally Conservative
Governments are expensive, inefficient, and distort markets
Libertarian Part 1: Socially Liberal
Government is immoral because it violates self-ownership
Exploring Finance
Why I started a blog in 2020