Comex Now Has 28 Paper Claims for Each Physical Ounce of Registered Silver

SchiffGold Gold Silver Comex Stock

Increase will likely be undone soon

Exploring Finance https://exploringfinance.github.io/
06-21-2023

This article first appeared on SchiffGold.

This analysis focuses on gold and silver within the Comex/CME futures exchange. See the article What is the Comex? for more detail. The charts and tables below specifically analyze the physical stock/inventory data at the Comex to show the physical movement of metal into and out of Comex vaults.

Registered = Warrant assigned and can be used for Comex delivery, Eligible = No warrant attached - owner has not made it available for delivery.

Gold

After two months of increasing inventories, the outflows have resumed. So far in June, 300k ounces of gold have left Comex vaults.

Figure 1: Recent Monthly Stock Change

The daily activity can be seen below. As the June contract was approaching, metal was leaving Registered (metal available for delivery) and moving into Eligible. This is the opposite of what usually occurs before a delivery begins. More recently, that metal started to flow out of Eligible with about 400k ounces leaving in the last few days before a small increase.

Figure 2: Recent Monthly Stock Change

Pledged gold ended up seeing a pretty large uptick on June 6. This was the largest single day up-move since April 2022.

Figure 3: Gold Pledged Holdings

Silver

Silver has also seen outflows continue after a brief respite in May. The bleed-out in Registered has continued unabated during that time. Registered supplies are now at the lowest level since 2016 (more on this below).

Figure 4: Recent Monthly Stock Change

The daily activity in silver has been a bit more volatile than gold. While Eligible continues to move up and down, the Registered activity is mostly sporadic outflows with a few inflows here and there.

Figure 5: Recent Monthly Stock Change

The table below summarizes the movement activity over several time periods to better demonstrate the magnitude of the current move.

Gold

Silver

Palladium/Platinum

Palladium and platinum are much smaller markets but it’s possible that is where the market breaks first.

1 Week Change

1 Month Change

1 Year Change

3 Year Change

Holder

Total

Ounces

Percent

Ounces

Percent

Ounces

Percent

Ounces

Percent

Gold

Eligible

10,293,364

-242,426

-2.3%

102,027

1.0%

-3,664,168

-26.3%

-9,598,124

-48.3%

Registered

10,853,949

0

0.0%

-1,547,356

-12.5%

-2,717,998

-20.0%

-6,457,795

-37.3%

TOTAL

21,147,313

-242,426

-1.1%

-1,445,329

-6.4%

-6,382,166

-23.2%

-16,055,919

-43.2%

Palladium

Eligible

9,025

0

0.0%

-105

-1.1%

-6,272

-41.0%

-25,620

-74.0%

Registered

34,246

0

0.0%

-6,079

-15.1%

-18,356

-34.9%

-53,080

-60.8%

TOTAL

43,271

0

0.0%

-6,183

-12.5%

-24,628

-36.3%

-78,701

-64.5%

Platinum

Eligible

44,399

0

0.0%

5,750

14.9%

-69,920

-61.2%

-90,302

-67.0%

Registered

133,900

0

0.0%

-33,127

-19.8%

14,770

12.4%

-379,111

-73.9%

TOTAL

178,299

0

0.0%

-27,377

-13.3%

-55,150

-23.6%

-469,413

-72.5%

Silver

Eligible

232,404,025

-1,550,939

-0.7%

-9,329,399

-3.9%

-45,591,145

-16.4%

982,305

0.4%

Registered

43,769,574

-581,264

-1.3%

14,022,281

47.1%

-2,503,930

-5.4%

-98,576,363

-69.3%

TOTAL

276,173,599

-2,132,202

-0.8%

4,692,882

1.7%

-48,095,075

-14.8%

-97,594,058

-26.1%

Data as of: 2023-09-08. Historical data (1 year/3 year) may not be exactly 1 and 3 years ago.

The next table shows the activity by bank/holder. It details the numbers above to see the movement specific to vaults.

Gold

Silver

1 Week Change

1 Month Change

1 Year Change

3 Year Change

Holder

Total

Ounces

Percent

Ounces

Percent

Ounces

Percent

Ounces

Percent

Gold

ASAHI DEPOSITORY LLC

351,112

0

0.0%

351,112

1,000.0%

351,112

1,000.0%

351,112

1,000.0%

BANK OF NOVA SCOTIA

0

0

0

0

-1,272,033

-100.0%

BRINK'S,

3,945,936

-242,426

-5.8%

-924,652

-19.0%

-2,524,562

-39.0%

-5,828,302

-59.6%

DELAWARE DEPOSITORY

179,639

0

0.0%

15,854

9.7%

-1,397

-0.8%

-18,292

-9.2%

HSBC BANK, USA

6,187,340

0

0.0%

9,924

0.2%

-382,689

-5.8%

-1,659,643

-21.2%

INT. DEPOSITORY DELAWARE

117,534

0

0.0%

-13,568

-10.3%

-37,906

-24.4%

-386,160

-76.7%

JP MORGAN CHASE BANK NA

7,831,439

0

0.0%

-943,330

-10.8%

-3,541,511

-31.1%

-5,826,599

-42.7%

LOOMIS INTERNATIONAL (US)

201,915

0

0.0%

-16,011

-7.3%

-112,323

-35.7%

-463,182

-69.6%

MALCA-AMIT USA, LLC

788,782

0

0.0%

152,181

23.9%

-115,363

-12.8%

-1,140,699

-59.1%

MANFRA, TORDELLA & BROOKES,

1,543,615

0

0.0%

-76,839

-4.7%

-17,526

-1.1%

187,879

13.9%

TOTAL

21,147,313

-242,426

-1.1%

-1,445,329

-6.4%

-6,382,166

-23.2%

-16,055,919

-43.2%

Silver

ASAHI DEPOSITORY LLC

3,698,099

0

0.0%

3,698,099

1,000.0%

3,698,099

1,000.0%

3,698,099

1,000.0%

BANK OF NOVA SCOTIA

0

0

0

0

-24,327,572

-100.0%

BRINK'S,

35,729,740

-1,007,957

-2.7%

13,036,114

57.4%

-40,777

-0.1%

-14,434,251

-28.8%

CNT DEPOSITORY,

17,420,423

-471,555

-2.6%

-1,165,100

-6.3%

-14,309,297

-45.1%

-42,776,350

-71.1%

DELAWARE DEPOSITORY

41,473,368

1,004

0.0%

-1,527,728

-3.6%

8,771,307

26.8%

25,953,225

167.2%

HSBC BANK, USA

17,035,882

0

0.0%

-1,284,364

-7.0%

-826,450

-4.6%

-11,669,173

-40.7%

INT. DEPOSITORY DELAWARE

364,306

0

0.0%

-322,545

-47.0%

-2,037,290

-84.8%

-16,694

-4.4%

JP MORGAN CHASE BANK NA

138,088,883

-578,057

-0.4%

-2,134,452

-1.5%

-30,039,567

-17.9%

-45,650,008

-24.8%

LOOMIS INTERNATIONAL (US)

11,827,920

-75,636

-0.6%

-1,065,717

-8.3%

-5,000,023

-29.7%

3,698,979

45.5%

MALCA-AMIT USA, LLC

2,849,377

0

0.0%

-748,950

-20.8%

-1,128,678

-28.4%

2,088,665

274.6%

MANFRA, TORDELLA & BROOKES,

7,685,602

0

0.0%

-3,792,476

-33.0%

-7,182,398

-48.3%

5,841,021

316.7%

TOTAL

276,173,599

-2,132,202

-0.8%

4,692,882

1.7%

-48,095,075

-14.8%

-97,594,058

-26.1%

Data as of: 2023-09-08. Historical data (1 year/3 year) may not be exactly 1 and 3 years ago.

Historical Perspective

The recent activity in gold can be put into context by the chart below. Banks did clearly restock last month, but it did little to move the needle or change the trend. The inflows have stopped which means the inflows in May are likely just a slowdown of the general downward trend of inventory.

The Registered as a % of Total line shows that the ratio has returned back to the level in March, prior to the big spike up. It now sits at 52%, which is higher than the average for the past few months, but not meaningfully so.

Figure 6: Historical Eligible and Registered

Silver is in a different boat as Registered supplies continue to get depleted. The ratio now sits at 10% which is the lowest on record.

Figure 7: Historical Eligible and Registered

Below shows just the Registered component. The draw down over the last few years is very clear in this chart. There was then a pause from November to February before a slight uptick. That uptick has now more than reversed, bringing the total Registered supply to 27.1M ounces.

Figure 8: Historical Registered

The LBMA has been steadier in recent months after seeing similar outflows last year.

Figure 9: LBMA Holdings of Silver

Available supply for potential demand

Before the recent sell-off in gold, open interest reached 536k contracts on May 15th. This means there was 4.3 paper contracts for each ounce of Registered gold at the Comex. The drop in Open Interest to 431k has brought the ratio down to 3.6. This is still fairly high relative to recent history and could go much higher if the speculative traders started diving back into gold, driving up open interest.