Deficits continue to move in the wrong direction
This article first appeared on SchiffGold.
The Federal Government ran a deficit of -$262B in February. Ignoring the Student Loan forgiveness allocation in September last year, this is the largest monthly budget deficit since July 2021.
Figure 1: Monthly Federal Budget
The chart below shows the month of February historically. This February sits only behind February 2021 ($311B) when Covid spending was still near full throttle.
Figure 2: Historical Deficit/Surplus for February
February is typically the biggest deficit month of the year, averaging a deficit of $208B per year for the decade prior to Covid. Still, this year came in 26% above that figure.
Figure 3: Current vs Historical
The Sankey diagram below shows the distribution of spending and revenue. The Deficit represented 50% of total spending while Social Security revenue was the second biggest item at $120B or 22.8%. This shows Social Security still in a surplus as Social Security spending came in $6B less at $114B.
Figure 4: Monthly Federal Budget Sankey
Looking at the TTM, the deficit represented 25% of the total spend with Individual Income taxes covering 40% of the total budget. This means, if the government wanted to plug the Deficit hole (as Biden currently claims), then Individual Income taxes would need to rise 64%!
On a TTM basis, Social Security also remains in a surplus thanks to a record increase in Social Security taxes in 2023.
Figure 5: TTM Federal Budget Sankey
February saw a fairly large reduction in tax revenues, driven primarily from Corporate Taxes (which are inconsistent), but also Individual Income Taxes.
Figure 6: Monthly Receipts
Total Expenses were up slightly MoM, but still around average for the last year. The September student loan allocation can be seen clearly in the chart below. If the Supreme Court rules against the forgiveness plan, then that allocation could be reversed.
Figure 7: Monthly Outlays
The real issue with the debt continues to be interest expense. In February, total interest expense reached $541B on a TTM basis. This is up $8B since January. A deeper dive into the debt and interest expense can be found in the debt analysis.
Figure 8: TTM Interest Expense
The table below goes deeper into the numbers of each category. The key takeaways from the charts and table:
Outlays
Receipts
Total
While the TTM deficit did shrink since last February, it should be noted that $1.6T is a massive and unsustainable budget deficit. Unfortunately, there is nothing material in Biden’s plan that will lead to any reduction in the deficit going forward.
Monthly and Average Monthly Comparison | Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) Comparison | |||||||||
Category | Feb 2023 | Feb 2022 | TTM Avg Monthly | YoY % Change | TTM % Change | TTM Ending | TTM Ending | TTM Ending | TTM | TTM |
Outlay | ||||||||||
Social Security | -114.0 | -101.9 | -105.6 | 11.9% | 7.9% | -1,267.6 | -1,160.0 | -1,114.2 | 9.3% | 13.8% |
Income Security | -98.0 | -120.9 | -68.7 | -18.9% | 42.7% | -824.3 | -1,488.6 | -1,571.8 | -44.6% | -47.6% |
Health | -70.1 | -72.8 | -75.1 | -3.7% | -6.6% | -901.4 | -859.6 | -812.5 | 4.9% | 10.9% |
Medicare | -68.0 | -57.3 | -62.9 | 18.7% | 8.2% | -754.3 | -699.9 | -758.6 | 7.8% | -0.6% |
National Defense | -59.7 | -58.1 | -64.9 | 2.7% | -8.1% | -778.7 | -755.3 | -733.1 | 3.1% | 6.2% |
Net Interest | -40.6 | -32.2 | -45.1 | 26.2% | -10.0% | -541.5 | -382.5 | -321.1 | 41.6% | 68.6% |
Other | -31.7 | -25.2 | -33.9 | 26.0% | -6.4% | -407.1 | -704.5 | -1,276.2 | -42.2% | -68.1% |
Veterans Benefits and Services | -24.2 | -21.0 | -22.9 | 15.1% | 5.2% | -275.4 | -243.2 | -216.0 | 13.2% | 27.5% |
Education & Social Services | -18.2 | -17.2 | -58.0 | 6.2% | -68.6% | -696.5 | -323.8 | -240.3 | 115.1% | 189.9% |
Receipt | ||||||||||
Corporation Income Taxes | 2.3 | 4.8 | 36.4 | -52.6% | -93.7% | 436.3 | 399.8 | 227.1 | 9.1% | 92.1% |
Miscellaneous Receipts | 2.8 | 12.3 | 7.8 | -77.4% | -64.5% | 94.0 | 144.3 | 126.7 | -34.9% | -25.8% |
Customs Duties | 6.3 | 8.0 | 7.9 | -21.1% | -19.4% | 94.6 | 90.0 | 64.6 | 5.0% | 46.5% |
Other | 19.0 | 10.8 | 16.3 | 76.7% | 16.9% | 195.4 | 181.3 | 148.2 | 7.8% | 31.9% |
Individual Income Taxes | 112.0 | 149.3 | 211.4 | -25.0% | -47.0% | 2,537.1 | 2,313.9 | 1,641.9 | 9.6% | 54.5% |
Social Security Taxes | 119.7 | 104.6 | 122.2 | 14.4% | -2.1% | 1,467.0 | 1,287.2 | 1,281.1 | 14.0% | 14.5% |
Total | ||||||||||
Outlay | -524.5 | -506.5 | -537.2 | 3.6% | -2.4% | -6,446.8 | -6,617.6 | -7,043.8 | -2.6% | -8.5% |
Receipt | 262.1 | 289.9 | 402.0 | -9.6% | -34.8% | 4,824.4 | 4,416.5 | 3,489.5 | 9.2% | 38.3% |
Total | -262.4 | -216.6 | -135.2 | 21.2% | 94.1% | -1,622.4 | -2,201.1 | -3,554.2 | -26.3% | -54.4% |
Data as of: Feb 2023. % Changes are capped at 1,000%. | ||||||||||
Zooming out and looking over the history of the budget back to 1980 shows a complete picture. It shows how a new level of spending has been reached that is far above pre-Covid levels. More importantly, in recent months, you can see that spending has turned back up while revenues have flattened out.
This is an alarming trend, especially because times are technically still “good” according to most pundits. What happens in a major recession or full blown banking crisis? The media is arguing that SVB is probably contained, but they said the same thing in 2008! A recession or financial crisis will explode deficits to well north of $2T in short order.
Figure 9: Trailing 12 Months (TTM)
The next two charts zoom in on the recent periods to show the change when compared to pre-Covid.
As shown below, total Receipts have surged higher the last two years driven by Social Security, Corporate Taxes, and Individual Taxes. In two years, total revenue has climbed by $1.33T.
Figure 10: Annual Federal Receipts
Spending has also seen the massive surge, blasting well past $6T per year for the last three years. The fact that spending is now at $6.45T despite no stimulus package beyond student loan forgiveness should be very alarming.
Figure 11: Annual Federal Expenses
As highlighted above, spending on Social Security is still fully covered by Social Security revenues. The latest TTM period saw one of the largest surpluses in years. This comes at a cost. Income subject to Social Security taxes has reached $160k, up 9% YoY and up 50% since 2010. How many Americans got 9% raises this year or have seen incomes increase 50% in 13 years? This means Social Security is creating a paycut for most American tax payers.
Figure 12: Social Security
Despite massive expenditures driving huge deficits, the Deficit is down YoY as mentioned above. This has brought the TTM Deficit compared to GDP down to pre-Covid levels. It has moved back up in recent months and is now at 6.2% of GDP, up from 3.9% as recently as August.
Note: GDP Axis is set to log scale
Figure 13: TTM vs GDP
The TTM deficit of $1.6T is very alarming. As the yield curve anticipates another recession in the near future and rumors circulate about another financial crisis, bond holders should be careful. The low water mark for this move appears to be last July when the deficit came in at $961B on a TTM basis. The TTM deficit has almost doubled since then! If a recession causes tax revenues to dry up just as new spending is enacted, the government will find itself deep in a hole.
The warning signs have been flashing for a long time. It may be easy to ignore them as nothing has happened yet. But when things unravel, it can happen very quickly. Just ask SVB customers who thought their assets were safe in a premier bank just last week. 7 days later, the bank has closed! This should be a major warning for all to get assets out of the banking system. Owning physical gold and silver is the ultimate insurance policy. It eliminates any counterparty risk and is wealth that does not get destroyed by inflation.
Data Source: Monthly Treasury Statement
Data Updated: Monthly on eighth business day
Last Updated: Period ending Feb 2023
US Debt interactive charts and graphs can always be found on the Exploring Finance dashboard: https://exploringfinance.shinyapps.io/USDebt/