Headline number continues to defy logic
This article first appeared on SchiffGold.
The analysis below covers the Employment picture released on the first Friday of every month. While most of the attention goes to the headline number, it can be helpful to look at the details, revisions, and other reports to get a better gauge of what is really going on.
While the BLS reported 353k jobs, the Household Survey actually *reported a loss of -31k. December was even a bigger miss with 333k vs -683k.
Figure 1: Primary Report vs Household Survey - Monthly
Household survey continues to underperform the BLS Report. This has been a consistent trend since 2018.
Figure 2: Primary Report vs Household Survey - Annual
The BLS also publishes the data behind their Birth/Death assumptions. January is always a big drop, but this was smaller than last year (-144k in Jan 2023 vs -121k in Jan 2024).
Figure 3: Primary Unadjusted Report With Birth Death Assumptions - Monthly
The 353k jobs surprised to the upside and was the biggest report since Jan 2023.
Figure 4: Change by sector
The number of multiple job holders has climbed again.
Figure 5: Multiple Full Time Employees
With the unexpectedly strong report, 5 of the 8 employment categories were actually above the 12-month trend, with some well above (Professional Business and Trade/Transport).
Figure 6: Current vs TTM
The table below shows a detailed breakdown of the numbers.
Monthly Average Change | Total % Change | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Category | Total Employed | Current Month | 3 Months | 12 Months | 3 years | Current Month | 3 Months | 12 Months | 3 years |
Private Sector | |||||||||
Construction | 8,137 | 11 | 16.7 | 18.0 | 21.5 | 0.1% | 0.6% | 2.7% | 9.5% |
Education Health | 25,943 | 112 | 102.0 | 86.4 | 71.9 | 0.4% | 1.2% | 4.0% | 10.0% |
Financial | 9,248 | 8 | 8.3 | 8.6 | 14.3 | 0.1% | 0.3% | 1.1% | 5.6% |
Information | 3,032 | 15 | 16.7 | -2.9 | 7.9 | 0.5% | 1.6% | -1.2% | 9.4% |
Leisure Hospitality | 16,824 | 11 | 19.7 | 39.9 | 112.0 | 0.1% | 0.4% | 2.8% | 24.0% |
Manufacturing | 12,979 | 23 | 18.7 | 3.1 | 22.0 | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 6.1% |
Mining and Logging | 635 | -6 | -3.0 | 0.3 | 2.4 | -0.9% | -1.4% | 0.6% | 13.5% |
Other Services | 5,868 | 5 | 4.7 | 7.0 | 15.3 | 0.1% | 0.2% | 1.4% | 9.4% |
Prof Business | 22,978 | 74 | 39.7 | 17.2 | 58.5 | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 9.2% |
Trade Trans Utils | 28,965 | 64 | 25.7 | 16.2 | 48.7 | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 6.0% |
Government | |||||||||
Government Federal | 2,968 | 11 | 5.0 | 7.2 | 2.4 | 0.4% | 0.5% | 2.9% | 2.9% |
Government Local | 14,715 | 15 | 24.3 | 26.1 | 26.9 | 0.1% | 0.5% | 2.1% | 6.6% |
Government State | 5,408 | 10 | 11.0 | 16.8 | 6.9 | 0.2% | 0.6% | 3.7% | 4.6% |
Total | |||||||||
All | 157,700 | 353 | 289.3 | 243.9 | 410.7 | 0.2% | 0.6% | 1.9% | 9.4% |
Values in 1,000s of workers. Data as of: Jan 2024. Total Employed = Entire size of the labor market. | |||||||||
Another data point to highlight is the amount of revisions. Over the last three months, the numbers have actually been revised up.
3 Month Compare | 12 Month Compare | 3 Year Compare | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Category | Current | As Of Published | Avg Month Diff | Current | As Of Published | Avg Month Diff | Current | As Of Published | Avg Month Diff |
Private Sector | |||||||||
Construction | 61 | 42 | 6.3 | 242 | 197 | 3.8 | 772 | 584 | 5.2 |
Education Health | 271 | 262 | 3.0 | 1,058 | 1,025 | 2.8 | 2,486 | 2,443 | 1.2 |
Financial | 17 | 4 | 4.3 | 95 | 77 | 1.5 | 518 | 343 | 4.9 |
Information | 9 | 15 | -2.0 | -78 | -49 | -2.4 | 302 | 225 | 2.1 |
Leisure Hospitality | 105 | 99 | 2.0 | 558 | 657 | -8.2 | 4,017 | 3,962 | 1.5 |
Manufacturing | 2 | -1 | 1.0 | 22 | 60 | -3.2 | 762 | 668 | 2.6 |
Mining and Logging | -4 | -1 | -1.0 | 11 | 13 | -0.2 | 83 | 124 | -1.1 |
Other Services | 8 | 10 | -0.7 | 94 | 117 | -1.9 | 551 | 570 | -0.5 |
Prof Business | 40 | 19 | 7.0 | 171 | 345 | -14.5 | 2,188 | 1,741 | 12.4 |
Trade Trans Utils | 19 | -36 | 18.3 | 195 | 144 | 4.2 | 1,771 | 1,247 | 14.6 |
Government | |||||||||
Government Federal | 12 | 10 | 0.7 | 81 | 64 | 1.4 | 62 | 55 | 0.2 |
Government Local | 88 | 107 | -6.3 | 340 | 334 | 0.5 | 1,002 | 898 | 2.9 |
Government State | 52 | 35 | 5.7 | 267 | 156 | 9.2 | 315 | 230 | 2.4 |
Total | |||||||||
All | 680 | 565 | 38.3 | 3,056 | 3,140 | -7.0 | 14,829 | 13,090 | 48.3 |
Values in 1,000s of workers. Because this data is focused on revisions, it is as of the month prior: Dec 2023. "Current" shows the change in employment after revisions. "As Of Published" shows change in employment at time of release. "Avg Month Diff" shows the average monthly change from the revisions. | |||||||||
The chart below shows data going back to 1955.
Figure 7: Historical Labor Market
The labor force participation rate is still well below the highs before the Global Financial Crisis.
Figure 8: Labor Market Distribution
Data Source: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PAYEMS and also series CIVPART
Data Updated: Monthly on first Friday of the month
Last Updated: Jan 2024
Interactive charts and graphs can always be found on the Exploring Finance dashboard: https://exploringfinance.shinyapps.io/USDebt/