January is typically a surplus but is not this year
This article first appeared on SchiffGold.
The Federal Government publishes the spending and revenue numbers on a monthly basis. The charts and tables below give an in depth review of the Federal Budget, showing where the money is coming from, where it is going to, and the surplus or deficit.
This month saw a $22B deficit.
Figure 1: Monthly Federal Budget
$22B may not seem like a lot, but January is historically a month with a surplus. That said, four of the last five years have seen January realize a deficit.
Figure 2: Historical Deficit/Surplus for January
January is the only month other than April that has historically averaged a surplus.
Figure 3: Current vs Historical
The two Sankey diagrams below show the distribution of spending and revenue for the month and the trailing twelve months.
Figure 4: Monthly Federal Budget Sankey
Figure 5: TTM Federal Budget Sankey
The next two charts show the monthly revenue and costs broken down by expense type.
Figure 6: Monthly Receipts
Figure 7: Monthly Outlays
Interest Expense has ballooned higher with the Fed’s push to raise rates.
Figure 8: TTM Interest Expense
The table below goes deeper into the numbers of each category.
Monthly and Average Monthly Comparison | Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) Comparison | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Category | Jan 2024 | Jan 2023 | TTM Avg Monthly | YoY % Change | TTM % Change | TTM Ending | TTM Ending | TTM Ending | TTM | TTM |
Outlay | ||||||||||
Social Security | -120.8 | -113.5 | -116.6 | 6.4% | 3.6% | -1,399.3 | -1,255.5 | -1,152.2 | 11.5% | 21.4% |
Medicare | -82.8 | -71.4 | -73.1 | 16.0% | 13.3% | -876.9 | -743.5 | -701.4 | 17.9% | 25.0% |
Health | -68.2 | -69.1 | -74.0 | -1.3% | -7.8% | -888.1 | -904.1 | -845.1 | -1.8% | 5.1% |
Net Interest | -67.7 | -49.8 | -62.4 | 36.0% | 8.6% | -748.3 | -533.1 | -376.0 | 40.4% | 99.0% |
National Defense | -59.7 | -49.6 | -71.2 | 20.5% | -16.1% | -854.4 | -777.2 | -750.8 | 9.9% | 13.8% |
Income Security | -40.5 | -81.3 | -58.4 | -50.2% | -30.6% | -701.1 | -847.1 | -1,489.3 | -17.2% | -52.9% |
Other | -27.2 | -20.7 | -46.0 | 31.2% | -40.9% | -551.9 | -400.5 | -795.5 | 37.8% | -30.6% |
Education & Social Services | -18.1 | -18.9 | 1.5 | -4.1% | -1,000.0% | 17.6 | -695.4 | -319.1 | -102.5% | -105.5% |
Veterans Benefits and Services | -14.2 | -11.8 | -26.3 | 20.4% | -45.8% | -315.7 | -272.2 | -240.9 | 16.0% | 31.0% |
Receipt | ||||||||||
Customs Duties | 6.5 | 6.8 | 6.4 | -5.3% | 0.9% | 77.0 | 96.3 | 88.3 | -20.0% | -12.8% |
Taxes - Excise | 6.6 | 5.2 | 6.5 | 28.2% | 1.3% | 78.2 | 88.0 | 81.9 | -11.2% | -4.5% |
Other | 10.0 | 10.5 | 10.5 | -4.7% | -4.6% | 125.9 | 202.6 | 237.7 | -37.9% | -47.0% |
Corporation Income Taxes | 19.6 | 20.8 | 38.6 | -5.7% | -49.1% | 462.9 | 438.8 | 398.7 | 5.5% | 16.1% |
Social Security Taxes | 152.0 | 141.7 | 132.5 | 7.3% | 14.7% | 1,590.1 | 1,451.9 | 1,277.9 | 9.5% | 24.4% |
Individual Income Taxes | 282.6 | 262.3 | 184.8 | 7.7% | 52.9% | 2,217.2 | 2,574.5 | 2,290.4 | -13.9% | -3.2% |
Total | ||||||||||
Outlay | -499.3 | -486.1 | -526.5 | 2.7% | -5.2% | -6,318.2 | -6,428.7 | -6,670.3 | -1.7% | -5.3% |
Receipt | 477.3 | 447.3 | 379.3 | 6.7% | 25.8% | 4,551.3 | 4,852.2 | 4,374.9 | -6.2% | 4.0% |
Total | -21.9 | -38.8 | -147.2 | -43.5% | -85.1% | -1,766.8 | -1,576.6 | -2,295.4 | 12.1% | -23.0% |
Data as of: Jan 2024. % Changes are capped at 1,000%. | ||||||||||
Zooming out and looking over the history of the budget back to 1980 shows a complete picture. The change since Covid is quite dramatic.
Figure 9: Trailing 12 Months (TTM)
The next two charts zoom in on the recent periods to show the change when compared to pre-Covid. These charts show spending and revenue on a trailing 12 month basis period over period.
Figure 10: Annual Federal Receipts
Figure 11: Annual Federal Expenses
Data Source: Monthly Treasury Statement
Data Updated: Monthly on eighth business day
Last Updated: Period ending Jan 2024
US Debt interactive charts and graphs can always be found on the Exploring Finance dashboard: https://exploringfinance.shinyapps.io/USDebt/