QCEW Shows Weaker Reports
This article first appeared on SchiffGold.
The analysis below covers the Employment picture released on the first Friday of every month. While most of the attention goes to the headline number, it can be helpful to look at the details, revisions, and other reports to get a better gauge of what is really going on.
The BLS reported a gain of 303k jobs. This exceeded expectations of about 200k. The Household Survey, which had been trailing the headline number, saw a blowout gain of 498k.
Figure 1: Primary Report vs Household Survey - Monthly
Despite the massive Household blowout, for the year, the Household still trails the Headline report by the widest margin ever. The Household report is showing 34% of the Headline number for the year (283k vs 829k).
Figure 2: Primary Report vs Household Survey - Annual
The BLS also publishes the data behind their Birth/Death assumptions (formation of new business). In March, the BLS actually assumed a job loss in their birth/death assumptions.
Figure 3: Primary Unadjusted Report With Birth Death Assumptions - Monthly
There is another report published by the BLS called the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QECW). According to the BLS, this is a far more accurate and rigorous report covering 95% of jobs available at a highly detailed level. Due to the rigor, the report is released quarterly on a 7 month lag. The latest report was published at the end of February to show Q3 2023.
Below are the monthly numbers. Similar to the Household report, the QECW has been over the headline number in recent periods but still trails on a yearly basis. Below are the monthly numbers.
Figure 4: Primary Report vs QCEW - Yearly
On an annual basis, you can see that the QCEW trails the Headline number representing 92% and 76% for 2023 and 2024.
Figure 5: Primary Report vs QCEW - Yearly
The 303k jobs surprised to the upside with the unemployment rate dropping slightly from the near-term high last month.
Figure 6: Change by sector
The number of multiple job holders dropped again this month.
Figure 7: Multiple Full Time Employees
A number of categories saw some large gains, with only three categories below the 12 month trend (Education, Prof business, and Manufacturing).
Figure 8: Current vs TTM
The table below shows a detailed breakdown of the numbers.
Monthly Average Change | Total % Change | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Category | Total Employed | Current Month | 3 Months | 12 Months | 3 years | Current Month | 3 Months | 12 Months | 3 years |
Private Sector | |||||||||
Construction | 8,211 | 39 | 30.3 | 22.5 | 22.4 | 0.5% | 1.1% | 3.3% | 9.8% |
Education Health | 26,101 | 88 | 90.0 | 89.2 | 71.2 | 0.3% | 1.0% | 4.1% | 9.8% |
Financial | 9,226 | 3 | -2.3 | 6.3 | 13.6 | 0.0% | -0.1% | 0.8% | 5.3% |
Information | 3,017 | 0 | 1.7 | -3.1 | 6.8 | 0.0% | 0.2% | -1.2% | 8.1% |
Leisure Hospitality | 16,905 | 49 | 29.7 | 38.2 | 100.2 | 0.3% | 0.5% | 2.7% | 21.3% |
Manufacturing | 12,956 | 0 | -1.3 | 2.0 | 19.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 5.3% |
Mining and Logging | 645 | 3 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 2.5 | 0.5% | 0.3% | 1.6% | 14.1% |
Other Services | 5,901 | 16 | 12.3 | 8.8 | 15.6 | 0.3% | 0.6% | 1.8% | 9.5% |
Prof Business | 22,954 | 7 | 24.0 | 13.1 | 52.2 | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 8.2% |
Trade Trans Utils | 28,947 | 27 | 26.7 | 10.7 | 42.4 | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 5.3% |
Government | |||||||||
Government Federal | 2,993 | 9 | 10.7 | 7.8 | 3.0 | 0.3% | 1.1% | 3.1% | 3.6% |
Government Local | 14,833 | 49 | 40.7 | 31.3 | 29.2 | 0.3% | 0.8% | 2.5% | 7.1% |
Government State | 5,444 | 13 | 13.3 | 16.2 | 6.9 | 0.2% | 0.7% | 3.6% | 4.6% |
Total | |||||||||
All | 158,133 | 303 | 276.3 | 243.9 | 385.0 | 0.2% | 0.5% | 1.9% | 8.8% |
Values in 1,000s of workers. Data as of: Mar 2024. Total Employed = Entire size of the labor market. | |||||||||
Over the last three months, the data has been revised down by an average of 9.3k per month and 14.2k over 12 months.
3 Month Compare | 12 Month Compare | 3 Year Compare | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Category | Current | As Of Published | Avg Month Diff | Current | As Of Published | Avg Month Diff | Current | As Of Published | Avg Month Diff |
Private Sector | |||||||||
Construction | 70 | 51 | 6.3 | 225 | 182 | 3.6 | 874 | 682 | 5.3 |
Education Health | 266 | 271 | -1.7 | 1,045 | 1,043 | 0.2 | 2,586 | 2,603 | -0.5 |
Financial | -4 | 11 | -5.0 | 77 | 81 | -0.3 | 497 | 349 | 4.1 |
Information | 18 | 31 | -4.3 | -32 | -2 | -2.5 | 254 | 229 | 0.7 |
Leisure Hospitality | 81 | 109 | -9.3 | 444 | 493 | -4.1 | 3,717 | 3,737 | -0.6 |
Manufacturing | 8 | 25 | -5.7 | 16 | 64 | -4.0 | 739 | 676 | 1.8 |
Mining and Logging | 2 | -7 | 3.0 | 9 | 5 | 0.3 | 103 | 117 | -0.4 |
Other Services | 21 | 13 | 2.7 | 101 | 104 | -0.2 | 559 | 567 | -0.2 |
Prof Business | 78 | 96 | -6.0 | 168 | 301 | -11.1 | 2,010 | 1,664 | 9.6 |
Trade Trans Utils | 77 | 104 | -9.0 | 69 | 147 | -6.5 | 1,626 | 1,352 | 7.6 |
Government | |||||||||
Government Federal | 32 | 27 | 1.7 | 92 | 72 | 1.7 | 106 | 102 | 0.1 |
Government Local | 119 | 90 | 9.7 | 354 | 320 | 2.8 | 1,051 | 959 | 2.6 |
Government State | 48 | 23 | 8.3 | 202 | 130 | 6.0 | 265 | 253 | 0.3 |
Total | |||||||||
All | 816 | 844 | -9.3 | 2,770 | 2,940 | -14.2 | 14,387 | 13,290 | 30.5 |
Values in 1,000s of workers. Because this data is focused on revisions, it is as of the month prior: Feb 2024. "Current" shows the change in employment after revisions. "As Of Published" shows change in employment at time of release. "Avg Month Diff" shows the average monthly change from the revisions. | |||||||||
The chart below shows data going back to 1955.
Figure 9: Historical Labor Market
The labor force participation rate is still well below the highs before the Global Financial Crisis. This month it climbed to 62.7%.
Figure 10: Labor Market Distribution
Data Source: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PAYEMS and also series CIVPART
Data Updated: Monthly on first Friday of the month
Last Updated: Mar 2024
Interactive charts and graphs can always be found on the Exploring Finance dashboard: https://exploringfinance.shinyapps.io/USDebt/