Will December Comex Delivery Confirm Election Sell-Off is Over?

SchiffGold Gold Silver Comex Countdown

Physical demand has been keeping prices elevated


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Affiliation

Exploring Finance

 

Published

Oct. 26, 2024

DOI


This article first appeared on SchiffGold.

The CME Comex is the Exchange where futures are traded for gold, silver, and other commodities. The CME also allows futures buyers to turn their contracts into physical metal through delivery. You can find more detail on the CME here (e.g., vault types, major/minor months, delivery explanation, historical data, etc.).

The data below looks at contract delivery where the ownership of physical metal changes hands within CME vaults. It also shows data that details the movement of metal in and out of CME vaults. It is very possible that if there is a run on the dollar, and a flight into gold, this is the data that will show early warning signs.

TL;DR

December will be an interesting month. If we see elevated delivery volume it will likely indicate that the metals have not lost steam after the election. This would confirm that the election sell-off is mostly behind us and the physical demand for both metals remains strong. If we see weak delivery demand for December it may give investors reason for concern.

The current open interest shows that we could see a strong month. We will know more in a few days.

Gold

November saw very minor delivery volume in gold, coming in at 2,723 ounces delivered. This is not surprising; November is a very quiet month typically since December is a major month in both metals.

2,596 5,72011,824 6,466 9,64112,269 8,716 6,610 6,132 6,140 3,308 4,913 6,016 7,300 6,057 2,750 3,759 4,234 2,723Jan 2022Jul 2022Jan 2023Jul 2023Jan 2024Jul 2024Jan 202502k4k6k8k10k12k50.0%100.0%150.0%200.0%250.0%300.0%350.0%400.0%
Other Month DelivRecent Month DelivOI percentGold Historical delivieres for Minor monthsContracts standing for deliveryDeliveries % of max Open Ineterest

Figure 1: Recent like-month delivery volume

Despite a quiet month, there was a jump in net new contracts. The surge actually occurred right after the election while the price of gold was falling through the floor.

05101520−10000100020003000400050006000
2023-01-012023-03-012023-05-012023-07-012023-09-012023-11-012024-01-012024-03-012024-05-012024-07-012024-09-012024-11-01Gold Cumulative Net New Contracts After First PositionDays after First PositionNet New Contracts

Figure 2: Cumulative Net New Contracts

Gold inventory levels remain very low sitting around half the levels from 2022.

Jan 2023Jul 2023Jan 2024Jul 20248M10M12M14M16M
EligibleRegisteredGold: Inventory LevelsOunces of Gold

Figure 3: Inventory Data

The real fireworks could come in December. December is a major delivery month and the price of gold is up huge on the year. Furthermore, we have seen a very quick rebound after the election sell-off suggesting that this is still a strong market. Open interest for gold is higher than any major month over the last 18 months. It will continue dropping but if the trend holds it could see very large delivery volume.

−40−30−20−100100100k200k300k400k
2023-06-012023-08-012023-10-012023-12-012024-02-012024-04-012024-06-012024-08-012024-10-012024-12-01Gold Open Interest countdown to contract first positions dateOpen Interest

Figure 4: Open Interest Countdown

On a relative basis, open interest is also very elevated.

−40−30−20−100100.0%100.0%200.0%300.0%400.0%500.0%600.0%
2023-06-012023-08-012023-10-012023-12-012024-02-012024-04-012024-06-012024-08-012024-10-012024-12-01Gold Open Interest Countdown to Delivery Start as a % of RegisteredOpen Interest

Figure 5: Open Interest Countdown Percent

Silver

Silver delivery volume was modest in November, currently sitting around average for minor months.

1,3611,8811,102 716 7451,022 919 388 886 954 530 9041,3601,3081,6521,3391,0351,442 923Jul 2022Jan 2023Jul 2023Jan 2024Jul 2024Jan 202505001000150040.0%60.0%80.0%100.0%120.0%140.0%160.0%180.0%
Other Month DelivRecent Month DelivOI percentSilver Historical delivieres for Minor monthsContracts standing for deliveryDeliveries % of max Open Ineterest

Figure 6: Recent like-month delivery volume

We did not see a surge in net new contracts like we saw in gold.

0510152005001000
2023-04-012023-06-012023-08-012023-10-012023-11-012024-01-012024-02-012024-04-012024-06-012024-08-012024-10-01Silver Cumulative Net New Contracts After First PositionDays after First PositionNet New Contracts

Figure 7: Cumulative Net New Contracts

Registered and Eligible have been plotted separately to make the charts more readable. Eligible saw a pop early in the month, but it was immediately reversed.

Jan 2023Jul 2023Jan 2024Jul 2024220M230M240M250M260M270M280M
Silver: Inventory Levels EligibleOunces of Silver

Figure 8: Inventory Data

Registered got extremely low in 2023 but was able to recover this year. We are now seeing a drop in inventory. There have been some dips along the way up over the last year, but they have all reversed and inventory levels continued moving up. This current dip is not seeing the same recovery which begs the question if available inventory levels are low to replenish Comex supplies.

Jan 2023Jul 2023Jan 2024Jul 202430M40M50M60M70M80M
Silver: Inventory Levels - RegisteredOunces of Silver

Figure 9: Inventory Data

As we approach the delivery period for December, silver is showing a similar position to gold where it is elevated above trend.

−40−30−20−10010050k100k150k
2023-03-012023-05-012023-07-012023-09-012023-12-012024-03-012024-05-012024-07-012024-09-012024-12-01Silver Open Interest countdown to contract first positions dateOpen Interest

Figure 10: Open Interest Countdown

On a relative basis, open interest is actually quite low, primarily because of the recovery in Registered over the last year.

−40−30−20−100100.0%500.0%1000.0%1500.0%2000.0%
2023-03-012023-05-012023-07-012023-09-012023-12-012024-03-012024-05-012024-07-012024-09-012024-12-01Silver Open Interest Countdown to Delivery Start as a % of RegisteredOpen Interest

Figure 11: Open Interest Countdown Percent

Conclusion

December will be a good indicator on where this market is going next.