CPI: Shelter Prices are Rising 4.7% YoY

SchiffGold US Debt Inflation

Energy is still hiding a bad inflation number


Author

Affiliation

Exploring Finance

 

Published

Sept. 11, 2024

DOI


This article first appeared on SchiffGold.

This analysis takes the BLS inflation data and recalculates the percentage changes at the category level to get unrounded numbers. The total number ties to the BLS, but it gives more detail at the granular level.

November CPI

Below is the inflation data that has been taken from the BLS. Energy continues to play the primary role in bringing down inflation. Shelter, which is the largest component of the inflation basked, remains elevated.

Jan 2023Jul 2023Jan 2024Jul 2024−0.50%0.00%0.50%
CommoditiesEducationEnergyFoodHousehold OpsMedical CareOtherRecreationShelterTransportationWaste MgmtSeasonally Adjusted MoM Price Increases by Weighted CategoryMoM % Price Increase.8.56.33.51.25.32.19.44.25.54.62.65.39.17.03.12.08.16.12-.1-.31-.04-.2-.1-.05

Figure 1: Month Over Month Inflation

The YoY CPI better shows the impact that Shelter is having on the overall inflation number. It is making up the majority of the 2.7% increase. In fact, 1.66% of the 2.7% is directly from Shelter.

Jan 2023Jul 2023Jan 2024Jul 2024−2.00%0.00%2.00%4.00%6.00%
CommoditiesEducationEnergyFoodHousehold OpsMedical CareOtherRecreationShelterTransportationWaste MgmtUnadjusted YoY Price Increases by Weighted CategoryYoY % Change7.26.56.4654.9433.23.73.73.33.13.43.13.13.53.33.22.92.82.52.42.52.7

Figure 2: Year Over Year Inflation

Looking at the individual categories relative to history, it is clear that Energy is having an outsize effect. The good news in this chart is that Shelter is trending down compared to the 12-month average.

-.4-.3-1.7.1.2.4.7.2.2.1.50.1-.3.2.3.3.3.4.4.6.4Commodities (18.4%)Education (5%)Energy (6.5%)Food (13.5%)Household Ops (1%)Medical Care (6.5%)Other (1.5%)Recreation (3.2%)Shelter (36.6%)Transportation (6.6%)Waste Mgmt (1.1%)−1.50%−1.00%−0.50%0.00%0.50%
CurrentTTM AvgMoM vs TTM AverageCategory (weighting %)Percentage Price Change

Figure 3: MoM vs TTM

The table below gives a more detailed breakdown of the numbers. It shows the actual figures reported by the BLS side by side with the recalculated and unrounded numbers. The weighted column shows the contribution each value makes to the aggregated number. Details can be found on the BLS Website.

Looking at the Fed Numbers

The Fed uses a different category methodology than the BLS, but the total number ties. Below shows the number as reported by the Fed. It is concerning to see so many categories above the 12 month trend in this chart.

.2-.4.4.3.3.5.3.4.1.1.2.3.3.3.100.1.2.2.2.3.1.2ApparelEducationFood and BeverageHousingMedical CareOtherRecreationTransportation−0.40%−0.20%0.00%0.20%0.40%
1 Month12 Month Avg20 Year AvgInflation comparing current to historical (source Fed)Fed CategoryPercentage Price Change

Figure 4: Current vs History

Historical Perspective

Below is a much longer view of inflation and interest rates from the Fed and BLS (at the aggregate level, the data is the same).

195019601970198019902000201020200.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%
FedBLS RecalcBLS ActualFed Funds RateAggregate YoY CPI (source Federal Reserve)YoY CPI

Figure 5: Fed CPI

The BLS categorical data can be seen below. The stickiness of inflation is very clear to see in this chart.

201420162018202020222024−2.0%0.0%2.0%4.0%6.0%8.0%
CommoditiesEducationEnergyFoodHousehold OpsMedical CareOtherRecreationShelterTransportationWaste MgmtCPI YoY Unadjusted Recalcuated back to 2012YoY Percentage Price Change

Figure 6: Historical CPI

Conclusion

Inflation has cooled from the peak back in 2022 but it remains elevated and has shown to be pretty sticky. Not only is the Fed unable to fight inflation anymore (due to high debt levels), but they are actually going to continue cutting rates. We are stuck with the inflation that has already happened and it looks like we will have to deal with elevated inflation going forward. This should not be a surprise to anyone who understands basic economics. Perhaps that is why gold is seeing a record year… people are finally seeing the Fed is folding to inflation and has no more tricks to play.