Jobs: Household Survey Finishes the Year 75% Below the Headline Report

SchiffGold US Debt Employment

A strong December does not make up for a really bad year overall


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Exploring Finance

 

Published

Jan. 10, 2025

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This article first appeared on SchiffGold.

The analysis below covers the Employment picture released on the first Friday of every month. While most of the attention goes to the Headline Report, it can be helpful to look at the details, revisions, and other reports to get a better gauge of what is really going on.

The BLS reported a gain of 256k jobs which was well above expectations. The bigger surprise was the strong number that came from the Household Survey: 478k new jobs.

Jul 2023Oct 2023Jan 2024Apr 2024Jul 2024Oct 2024Jan 2025−800k−600k−400k−200k0200k400k600k800k−500.0%0.0%500.0%
Household SurveyBLS Headline ReportHH as a % of HeadlineMonthly View of BLS Report vs Household SurveyChange in EmploymentHH Survey % of Headline Report

Figure 1: Primary Report vs Household Survey - Monthly

Despite the massive beat from the Household Survey, it doesn’t change the trend for this year which has been a massive underperformance in the Household Survey compared to the Headline Report. For the year, the Household Survey was less than 25% of the total Headline Report number. For context, the Headline Report showed 2.23M new jobs for the year where the Household Survey showed 537k. That is a massive divergence and should call into question nearly every job report for the year.

201020152020−5M05M−100.0%−50.0%0.0%50.0%100.0%
Household SurveyBLS Headline ReportOI percentAnnual View of BLS Report vs Household SurveyChange in EmploymentHH Survey % of Headline Report

Figure 2: Primary Report vs Household Survey - Annual

The BLS also publishes the data behind their Birth/Death assumptions (formation of new business). In December, this was not a driver similar to November.

Jan 2024Mar 2024May 2024Jul 2024Sep 2024Nov 2024−2M−1M01M2M−60.0%−40.0%−20.0%0.0%20.0%40.0%60.0%
Birth/DeathsBLS Unadjusted Headline ReportRelative PercentAnnual View of BLS Report with Birth Death AssumptionsChange in EmploymentBirth/Death Assumptions % of Headline Report1.1M0.7M0.8M0.8M0.5M0.3M0.5M0.8M0.5M-0.1M-2.8M-0.9M-0.1M

Figure 3: Primary Unadjusted Report With Birth Death Assumptions - Monthly

Despite very low assumptions for November and December, the birth-death assumptions were responsible for 55% of the total jobs for 2024. This is the highest number going back at least 10 years.

201420162018202020222024−10M−5M05M10M−40.0%−20.0%0.0%20.0%40.0%
Birth/DeathsBLS Unadjusted Headline ReportOI percentAnnual View of BLS Report with Birth Death AssumptionsChange in EmploymentBirth/Death Assumptions % of Headline Report4.1M2.7M2.2M2.3M2.3M2M7.1M4.5M3.1M2.2M-9.2M-9.2M

Figure 4: Primary Unadjusted Report With Birth Death Assumptions - Monthly

Digging Into the Report

The 256k jobs number was accompanied by a drop in unemployment rate to 4.1%.

Jul 2023Oct 2023Jan 2024Apr 2024Jul 2024Oct 20240100k200k300k3.6%3.8%4.0%4.2%
ConstructionEducation HealthGovernmentLeisure HospitalityManufacturingOtherProf BusinessTrade Trans UtilsUnemployment RateUS Employment Change by SectorChange in EmploymentUnemployment Rate2401842102461651822902562363101082161181447825543212256

Figure 5: Change by sector

Jobs by Category

When looking over the last 12-month trend, the latest report shows only manufacturing as underperforming in any meaningful way.

ConstructionEducation HealthGovernmentLeisure HospitalityManufacturingOtherProf BusinessTrade Trans Utils020k40k60k80k
Current Month12 Month Avg ChangeUS Employment TrendChange in Employment

Figure 6: Current vs TTM

The table below shows a detailed breakdown of the numbers.

Revisions

The chart below shows how the jobs data had a lot of revisions earlier in the year but that has slowed some in recent months.

Jan 2024Mar 2024May 2024Jul 2024Sep 2024Nov 20240100k200k300k400k
Original ChangeRevised ChangeComparing Headline Report RevisionsChange in Employment

Figure 7: Revisions

The put numbers to it, jobs have been revised up by about 5k in the last three months, but been revised down by 27k per month going back a year.

More Detail in the Household Survey

Another level of detail in the Household report shows full-time vs part-time job holders. In December, both full-time and part-time job holders added jobs, reversing the losses in November.

Jul 2023Oct 2023Jan 2024Apr 2024Jul 2024Oct 2024−1.5M−1M−0.5M00.5M1M
Change in Part Time JobsChange in Full Time JobsHousehold Survey: Part Time vs Full time JobsNumber of Jobs

Figure 8: Full Time vs Part Time

Historical Perspective

The chart below shows data going back to 1955.

1960197019801990200020102020050M100M150M4.0%6.0%8.0%10.0%12.0%14.0%
ConstructionEducation HealthGovernmentLeisure HospitalityManufacturingOtherProf BusinessTrade Trans UtilsUnemployment RateUS Total Employment by SectorChange in EmploymentUnemployment Rate

Figure 9: Historical Labor Market

The labor force participation rate is still well below the highs before the Global Financial Crisis. This month it stayed steady at 62.5%.

19601970198019902000201020200.0%20.0%40.0%60.0%80.0%100.0%58.0%60.0%62.0%64.0%66.0%
ConstructionEducation HealthGovernmentLeisure HospitalityManufacturingOtherProf BusinessTrade Trans UtilsLabor Force Part.US Relative Employment by SectorDistribution of EmploymentLabor Force Participation

Figure 10: Labor Market Distribution

Conclusion

While this was a strong jobs report with outperformance coming from the Household Survey, it does not change the general trend for 2024. The trend has been clear all year… moderate strength in the Headline Report with consistent downward revisions in future months combined with major underperformance in the Household Survey. Trump is not inheriting a strong economy.