Q4 2024 was plain ugly
This article first appeared on SchiffGold.
The Federal Government publishes the spending and revenue numbers on a monthly basis. The charts and tables below give an in depth review of the Federal Budget, showing where the money is coming from, where it is going to, and the surplus or deficit.
The government fiscal year closes at the end of September, but this analysis will look at the calendar year budget. As shown below, October and November were massive deficit months followed up by a modest December.
Figure 1: Monthly Federal Budget
On average, all three months were way worse than history.
Figure 2: Current vs Historical
We can look at the quarter in aggregate using the Sankey diagram below that shows the $711B deficit which means the US has a quarterly shortfall of revenue equal to 39% of expenses!
Figure 3: Quarterly Federal Budget Sankey
This latest quarter was the worst quarter since Q3 2022.
Figure 4: Quarterly Historical Deficit/Surplus for Previous Five Years
The next two charts show the quarterly revenue and costs broken down by expense type. You can see how the most recent quarter generated less revenue than each of the last 4 quarters. Falling revenue is not good!
Figure 5: Quarterly Receipts
On the flip side, you can see that spending was at the highest since Q3 2022. Falling revenue and rising cost is a recipe for disaster.
Figure 6: Quarterly Outlays
Interest Expense has ballooned higher to $907B.
Figure 7: TTM Interest Expense
Zooming out and looking over the history of the budget back to 1980 shows a complete picture. The change since Covid is quite dramatic.
Figure 8: Trailing 12 Months (TTM)
The next two charts zoom in on the recent periods to show the change when compared to pre-Covid. These charts show spending and revenue on a trailing 12 month basis period over period. While 2024 was a record revenue year, it was also a record spending year. Spending is growing faster.
Figure 9: Annual Federal Receipts
Figure 10: Annual Federal Expenses
Finally, we finish with a Sankey showing TTM Deficit was $@B which is a massive issue going forward, representing 29% of all government spending. The government cannot afford to keep printing such massive debt figures.
Figure 11: TTM Federal Budget Sankey