This is a one time revision
This article first appeared on SchiffGold.
The analysis below covers the Employment picture released on the first Friday of every month. While most of the attention goes to the Headline Report, it can be helpful to look at the details, revisions, and other reports to get a better gauge of what is really going on.
For over a year, we have been commenting on the giant misses in the Household Survey vs the Headline Report. The BLS is hoping to fix that issue in the latest jobs report. An article from Briefing Book provides a deep dive. I will summarize:
Bottom line: Household Report has had the correct trend but the population (and not the jobs) needs to be stepped up to reflect higher population numbers, primarily driven by immigration.
With all that said, that is why the chart below shows a massive 2M gain in the Household Survey. Those are not job gains.
Figure 1: Primary Report vs Household Survey - Monthly
The chart below will also reflect the change discussed above.
Figure 2: Primary Report vs Household Survey - Annual
Switching to the headline report…
The BLS publishes the data behind their Birth/Death assumptions (formation of new business). In January, there was a very minor drop in jobs from new business. January raw numbers typically see big drops in employment, so the blue bar should not be interpreted as abnormal job losses.
Figure 3: Primary Unadjusted Report With Birth Death Assumptions - Monthly
Since this year only has one month, the yearly trend is hard to compare.
Figure 4: Primary Unadjusted Report With Birth Death Assumptions - Monthly
The 143k jobs number was accompanied by a drop in unemployment rate to 4%.
Figure 5: Change by sector
When looking over the last 12-month trend, only 3 categories were above trend (Manufacturing, Other, and Trade).
Figure 6: Current vs TTM
The table below shows a detailed breakdown of the numbers.
Monthly Average Change | Total % Change | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Category | Total Employed | Current Month | 3 Months | 12 Months | 3 years | Current Month | 3 Months | 12 Months | 3 years |
Private Sector | |||||||||
Construction | 8,291 | 4 | 7.7 | 14.8 | 19.6 | 0.0% | 0.3% | 2.1% | 8.5% |
Education Health | 26,991 | 61 | 72.0 | 80.0 | 86.7 | 0.2% | 0.8% | 3.6% | 11.6% |
Financial | 9,220 | 7 | 14.0 | 4.6 | 7.9 | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 3.1% |
Information | 2,945 | 2 | 7.7 | -1.8 | -1.1 | 0.1% | 0.8% | -0.7% | -1.3% |
Leisure Hospitality | 16,978 | -3 | 33.3 | 21.5 | 45.8 | 0.0% | 0.6% | 1.5% | 9.7% |
Manufacturing | 12,761 | 3 | 3.7 | -8.8 | 5.6 | 0.0% | 0.1% | -0.8% | 1.6% |
Mining and Logging | 615 | -7 | -2.7 | -1.4 | 1.1 | -1.1% | -1.3% | -2.8% | 6.2% |
Other Services | 6,021 | 17 | 12.7 | 8.7 | 11.6 | 0.3% | 0.6% | 1.7% | 7.0% |
Prof Business | 22,598 | -11 | 19.0 | -5.8 | 11.1 | 0.0% | 0.3% | -0.3% | 1.8% |
Trade Trans Utils | 29,059 | 38 | 42.0 | 20.0 | 20.8 | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 2.6% |
Government | |||||||||
Government Federal | 3,024 | 9 | 4.3 | 3.9 | 4.1 | 0.3% | 0.4% | 1.6% | 4.8% |
Government Local | 15,060 | 21 | 16.0 | 22.8 | 26.9 | 0.1% | 0.3% | 1.8% | 6.4% |
Government State | 5,506 | 2 | 7.3 | 9.7 | 11.6 | 0.0% | 0.4% | 2.1% | 7.6% |
Total | |||||||||
All | 159,069 | 143 | 237.0 | 168.3 | 251.8 | 0.1% | 0.4% | 1.3% | 5.7% |
Values in 1,000s of workers. Data as of: Jan 2025. Total Employed = Entire size of the labor market. | |||||||||
The chart below shows how the jobs data has been revised. The last three months show mild positive revisions after seeing major downward revisions prior.
Figure 7: Revisions
Over the last twelve months, jobs have been revised down by about 32k per month.
3 Month Compare | 12 Month Compare | 3 Year Compare | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Category | Current | As Of Published | Avg Month Diff | Current | As Of Published | Avg Month Diff | Current | As Of Published | Avg Month Diff |
Private Sector | |||||||||
Construction | 20 | 22 | -0.7 | 188 | 233 | -3.8 | 686 | 687 | 0.0 |
Education Health | 242 | 220 | 7.3 | 998 | 898 | 8.3 | 3,042 | 2,948 | 2.6 |
Financial | 38 | 37 | 0.3 | 37 | 78 | -3.4 | 279 | 302 | -0.6 |
Information | 14 | 12 | 0.7 | -19 | -8 | -0.9 | -18 | 78 | -2.7 |
Leisure Hospitality | 112 | 93 | 6.3 | 253 | 397 | -12.0 | 1,742 | 1,985 | -6.8 |
Manufacturing | -42 | 12 | -18.0 | -107 | -60 | -3.9 | 226 | 327 | -2.8 |
Mining and Logging | -2 | -8 | 2.0 | -15 | -9 | -0.5 | 46 | 54 | -0.2 |
Other Services | 22 | 33 | -3.7 | 98 | 88 | 0.8 | 387 | 363 | 0.7 |
Prof Business | 34 | 43 | -3.0 | -55 | 48 | -8.6 | 470 | 1,096 | -17.4 |
Trade Trans Utils | 78 | 64 | 4.7 | 167 | 260 | -7.8 | 801 | 929 | -3.6 |
Government | |||||||||
Government Federal | 7 | 13 | -2.0 | 49 | 47 | 0.2 | 134 | 123 | 0.3 |
Government Local | 53 | 53 | 0.0 | 276 | 281 | -0.4 | 968 | 827 | 3.9 |
Government State | 36 | 32 | 1.3 | 126 | 126 | 0.0 | 382 | 305 | 2.1 |
Total | |||||||||
All | 612 | 626 | -4.7 | 1,996 | 2,379 | -31.9 | 9,145 | 10,024 | -24.4 |
Values in 1,000s of workers. Because this data is focused on revisions, it is as of the month prior: Dec 2024. "Current" shows the change in employment after revisions. "As Of Published" shows change in employment at time of release. "Avg Month Diff" shows the average monthly change from the revisions. | |||||||||
Another level of detail in the Household report shows full-time vs part-time job holders. Again, the massive spike in full-time jobs should be ignored.
Figure 8: Full Time vs Part Time
The chart below shows data going back to 1955.
Figure 9: Historical Labor Market
The labor force participation rate is still well below the highs before the Global Financial Crisis. This month it increased slightly to 62.6%.
Figure 10: Labor Market Distribution
This jobs report is confusing because of the Household Report. Don’t let the numbers mislead you though. The Household report has been more accurate in recent years and has clearly been much weaker than the Headline Report. Make sure to look beyond just the Headline Report if you want to know what’s really going on in the job market.