The loss in government jobs has not yet materialized
This article first appeared on SchiffGold.
The analysis below covers the Employment picture released on the first Friday of every month. While most of the attention goes to the Headline Report, it can be helpful to look at the details, revisions, and other reports to get a better gauge of what is really going on.
Last month we discussed the catchup in the household survey to the headline report, explaining that it was a one-time event that doesn’t really change the overall picture.
This month, things returned to normal with the Household Survey dramatically underperforming the Headline Report yet again. The Household Survey reported a drop in jobs by 588k while the Headline Report showed a gain of 150k. This is a massive divergence that we saw all last year.
Figure 1: Primary Report vs Household Survey - Monthly
For the year, the Household Survey is still higher but that is due only to the data anomaly in January.
Figure 2: Primary Report vs Household Survey - Annual
Switching to the headline report…
The BLS publishes the data behind their Birth/Death assumptions (formation of new business). In February, there was a very minor increase in jobs from new business.
Figure 3: Primary Unadjusted Report With Birth Death Assumptions - Monthly
For the year, the birth death is now neutral.
Figure 4: Primary Unadjusted Report With Birth Death Assumptions - Monthly
There is another report published by the BLS called the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW). According to the BLS, this is a far more accurate and rigorous report covering 95% of jobs available at a highly detailed level. Due to the rigor, the report is released quarterly on a several month lag.
The latest report shows a big miss in July followed by above average numbers in August and September.
Figure 5: Primary Report vs QCEW - Yearly
Through Q3 2025, the QCEW is showing much weaker job gains than the Headline Report.
Figure 6: Primary Report vs QCEW - Yearly
The 151k jobs number was accompanied by an increase in unemployment rate to 4.1%.
Figure 7: Change by sector
When looking over the last 12-month trend, this month was a mixed picture. Note that government hiring is still net positive.
Figure 8: Current vs TTM
The table below shows a detailed breakdown of the numbers.
Monthly Average Change | Total % Change | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Category | Total Employed | Current Month | 3 Months | 12 Months | 3 years | Current Month | 3 Months | 12 Months | 3 years |
Private Sector | |||||||||
Construction | 8,313 | 13 | 8.0 | 11.9 | 17.2 | 0.2% | 0.3% | 1.7% | 7.4% |
Education Health | 27,130 | 77 | 66.3 | 76.3 | 85.6 | 0.3% | 0.7% | 3.4% | 11.4% |
Financial | 9,245 | 9 | 13.0 | 7.8 | 6.7 | 0.1% | 0.4% | 1.0% | 2.6% |
Information | 2,939 | -2 | -1.7 | -1.7 | -2.4 | -0.1% | -0.2% | -0.7% | -2.9% |
Leisure Hospitality | 16,991 | 43 | 4.0 | 18.2 | 41.0 | 0.3% | 0.1% | 1.3% | 8.7% |
Manufacturing | 12,764 | 1 | 1.3 | -6.2 | 2.4 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -0.6% | 0.7% |
Mining and Logging | 623 | -2 | -0.3 | -1.2 | 0.9 | -0.3% | -0.2% | -2.2% | 5.3% |
Other Services | 6,036 | 19 | 11.3 | 7.5 | 10.6 | 0.3% | 0.6% | 1.5% | 6.3% |
Prof Business | 22,589 | 3 | -8.3 | -4.0 | 3.0 | 0.0% | -0.1% | -0.2% | 0.5% |
Trade Trans Utils | 29,156 | 48 | 41.0 | 22.1 | 15.0 | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 1.9% |
Government | |||||||||
Government Federal | 3,000 | -4 | -4.0 | 0.2 | 3.6 | -0.1% | -0.4% | 0.1% | 4.4% |
Government Local | 15,086 | 17 | 16.7 | 16.3 | 26.9 | 0.1% | 0.3% | 1.3% | 6.4% |
Government State | 5,526 | 6 | 4.7 | 9.3 | 13.0 | 0.1% | 0.3% | 2.0% | 8.5% |
Total | |||||||||
All | 159,398 | 228 | 152.0 | 156.8 | 223.7 | 0.1% | 0.3% | 1.2% | 5.1% |
Values in 1,000s of workers. Data as of: Mar 2025. Total Employed = Entire size of the labor market. | |||||||||
The chart below shows how the jobs data has been revised. The last three months show a net positive mild revision.
Figure 9: Revisions
Over the last twelve months, jobs have been revised down by about 20k per month.
3 Month Compare | 12 Month Compare | 3 Year Compare | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Category | Current | As Of Published | Avg Month Diff | Current | As Of Published | Avg Month Diff | Current | As Of Published | Avg Month Diff |
Private Sector | |||||||||
Construction | 26 | 36 | -3.3 | 164 | 203 | -3.2 | 633 | 640 | -0.2 |
Education Health | 205 | 211 | -2.0 | 926 | 875 | 4.2 | 3,070 | 2,933 | 3.8 |
Financial | 42 | 37 | 1.7 | 81 | 104 | -1.9 | 251 | 281 | -0.8 |
Information | 14 | 5 | 3.0 | -22 | -7 | -1.2 | -53 | 65 | -3.3 |
Leisure Hospitality | 16 | 24 | -2.7 | 213 | 317 | -8.7 | 1,494 | 1,721 | -6.3 |
Manufacturing | -7 | 14 | -7.0 | -90 | -45 | -3.8 | 155 | 264 | -3.0 |
Mining and Logging | 0 | -4 | 1.3 | -8 | -9 | 0.1 | 44 | 45 | 0.0 |
Other Services | 22 | 40 | -6.0 | 89 | 86 | 0.2 | 374 | 348 | 0.7 |
Prof Business | 8 | -10 | 6.0 | -75 | 33 | -9.0 | 223 | 900 | -18.8 |
Trade Trans Utils | 156 | 107 | 16.3 | 252 | 262 | -0.8 | 552 | 841 | -8.0 |
Government | |||||||||
Government Federal | -5 | -5 | 0.0 | 19 | 15 | 0.3 | 130 | 110 | 0.6 |
Government Local | 47 | 58 | -3.7 | 234 | 231 | 0.2 | 972 | 823 | 4.1 |
Government State | 27 | 9 | 6.0 | 116 | 115 | 0.1 | 450 | 323 | 3.5 |
Total | |||||||||
All | 551 | 522 | 9.7 | 1,899 | 2,180 | -23.4 | 8,295 | 9,294 | -27.8 |
Values in 1,000s of workers. Because this data is focused on revisions, it is as of the month prior: Feb 2025. "Current" shows the change in employment after revisions. "As Of Published" shows change in employment at time of release. "Avg Month Diff" shows the average monthly change from the revisions. | |||||||||
Another level of detail in the Household report shows full-time vs part-time job holders. This month showed a massive drop in full-time employment.
Figure 10: Full Time vs Part Time
The chart below shows data going back to 1955.
Figure 11: Historical Labor Market
The labor force participation rate is still well below the highs before the Global Financial Crisis. This month it increased slightly to 62.4%.
Figure 12: Labor Market Distribution
After the confusing January report, the data has returned to “normal” where the Headline Report dramatically overstates the Household Survey and QCEW. In short, the job market may be much weaker than it appears.