Managed Money has bet wrong on gold in 2025
This article first appeared on SchiffGold.
Please note: the CoTs report was published 6/27/2025 for the period ending 6/24/2025. “Managed Money” and “Hedge Funds” are used interchangeably.
The Commitment of Traders report is a weekly publication that shows the breakdown of ownership in the Futures market. For every contract, there is a long and a short, so the net positioning will always be zero, but the report shows who is positioned long or short. Historically, Hedge Funds (Managed Money) dominate the price action in both Gold and Silver.
Below shows net positioning for the 5 main groups of futures holders. Net positioning reached multi-year highs back in September and again in February. The February peak brought a rally; however, the gold price spike through $3000 occurred as open interest actually fell!
Figure 1: Net Position by Holder
Managed Money has been in complete control of the price action for years, driving the spikes in both directions. The overall upward trend is beyond the control of Managed Money but the short-term moves are very much tied to the action of Managed Money.
That has changed in 2025 as the Managed Money group has been liquidating positions even as prices have continued rising. They did jump back in to potentially help the latest price rebound, but it was not an aggressive move in and did not propel the metal to new highs.
Figure 2: Managed Money Net Position
Managed Money did sell in the latest week, potentially driving prices down recently (the last week ended 6/24 on Tuesday).
The activity in the options market remains incredibly quiet despite gold sitting at all-time highs. There is no speculation this market right now which further strengthens the bull case and also supports the bullish technical analysis from last week.
Figure 3: Options Positions
Silver is still highly correlated to the action in managed money. Open interest is on the higher end and has seen some profit taking in recent days.
Figure 4: Net Position by Holder
Managed Money has definitely been behind the most recent moves as shown below.
Figure 5: Managed Money Net Position
Managed Money has been active both buying and selling at different points.
Figure 6: Net Change in Positioning
The options market has stayed active during the price moves.
Figure 7: Options Positions
The table below captures what was explained above: in 2025, Managed Money has maintained control over Silver but has been on the wrong side of the gold market with a massive -.88 correlation. That is worse than what happened in 2020 when gold went on a wild ride from Covid.
The most important takeaway from this report is that there is no over-speculation or froth in the futures market. Hedge Funds are scared of this market, unwilling to place big bullish bets. This means there is no mass liquidation of futures contracts that could collapse the price. The gold market continues climbing a wall of worry with healthy pullbacks (like this week).
Correlation Between Net Positioning and Price | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Gold Mng Money | Gold Other | Silver Mng Money | Silver Other |
2017 | 0.89 | -0.76 | 0.84 | -0.32 |
2018 | 0.95 | -0.74 | 0.63 | -0.62 |
2019 | 0.96 | 0.57 | 0.82 | -0.78 |
2020 | -0.80 | 0.64 | 0.35 | -0.81 |
2021 | 0.82 | -0.03 | 0.86 | -0.60 |
2022 | 0.95 | 0.58 | 0.96 | -0.54 |
2023 | 0.77 | 0.22 | 0.86 | -0.11 |
2024 | 0.90 | -0.09 | 0.75 | 0.22 |
2025 | -0.88 | -0.71 | 0.84 | -0.27 |
Since 2017 | 0.30 | 0.28 | 0.27 | 0.12 |
Values show correlation between the price movement and net positioning by Managed Money and Other. 1.0 represents a perfectly positive correlation. | ||||