Headline report continues to underperform the Household Survey
This article first appeared on SchiffGold.
The analysis below covers the Employment picture released on the first Friday of every month. While most of the attention goes to the Headline Report, it can be helpful to look at the details, revisions, and other reports to get a better gauge of what is really going on.
The jobs report showed a very modest increase of 73k jobs. The bigger news, as always, is the revision of prior months and the household survey.
These are huge revisions down and a massive deviation in the household report. This is not painting a healthy picture of the economy.
Figure 1: Primary Report vs Household Survey - Monthly
For the year, the Household Survey is significantly higher due to the data anomaly in January. However, if we removed the data correction in January, the Household Survey would actually show a loss of 790k.
Figure 2: Primary Report vs Household Survey - Annual
Switching to the headline report…
The BLS publishes the data behind their Birth/Death assumptions (formation of new business). In July, there were 257k jobs assumed into existence. Without these jobs assumed into existence, it is very likely that the jobs report this month would have been negative.
Figure 3: Primary Unadjusted Report With Birth Death Assumptions - Monthly
For the year, the birth death assumption is positive against a negative number for actuals (-1.6M).
Figure 4: Primary Unadjusted Report With Birth Death Assumptions - Monthly
The 73k jobs number was accompanied by a rise in the unemployment rate to 4.2%.
Figure 5: Change by sector
When looking at the last 12-month trend, only one category was above trend: Education and Health.
Figure 6: Current vs TTM
The table below shows a detailed breakdown of the numbers.
Monthly Average Change | Total % Change | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Category | Total Employed | Current Month | 3 Months | 12 Months | 3 years | Current Month | 3 Months | 12 Months | 3 years |
Private Sector | |||||||||
Construction | 8,310 | 2 | 2.3 | 8.0 | 14.5 | 0.0% | 0.1% | 1.2% | 6.3% |
Education Health | 27,409 | 79 | 67.0 | 73.7 | 83.4 | 0.3% | 0.7% | 3.2% | 11.0% |
Financial | 9,263 | 15 | 6.7 | 8.2 | 5.3 | 0.2% | 0.2% | 1.1% | 2.1% |
Information | 2,939 | -2 | 0.0 | 0.2 | -4.3 | -0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | -5.3% |
Leisure Hospitality | 17,030 | 5 | 12.0 | 19.8 | 30.7 | 0.0% | 0.2% | 1.4% | 6.5% |
Manufacturing | 12,727 | -11 | -12.3 | -9.4 | -2.0 | -0.1% | -0.3% | -0.9% | -0.6% |
Mining and Logging | 617 | -4 | -3.0 | -0.5 | 0.1 | -0.6% | -1.5% | -1.0% | 0.5% |
Other Services | 6,036 | 2 | 2.3 | 5.1 | 9.1 | 0.0% | 0.1% | 1.0% | 5.5% |
Prof Business | 22,562 | -14 | -16.0 | -5.1 | -2.5 | -0.1% | -0.2% | -0.3% | -0.4% |
Trade Trans Utils | 29,077 | 11 | -7.3 | 13.2 | 10.3 | 0.0% | -0.1% | 0.5% | 1.3% |
Government | |||||||||
Government Federal | 2,931 | -12 | -15.7 | -5.9 | 1.9 | -0.4% | -1.6% | -2.4% | 2.4% |
Government Local | 15,108 | -3 | -2.0 | 13.5 | 23.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.1% | 5.5% |
Government State | 5,530 | 5 | 1.3 | 7.2 | 10.8 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 1.6% | 7.1% |
Total | |||||||||
All | 159,539 | 73 | 35.3 | 128.0 | 180.3 | 0.0% | 0.1% | 1.0% | 4.1% |
Values in 1,000s of workers. Data as of: Jul 2025. Total Employed = Entire size of the labor market. | |||||||||
The chart below shows how the jobs data has been revised. So far, every month this year has been revised lower by a significant margin, with May and June showing massive revisions down as highlighted above.
Figure 7: Revisions
Over the last twelve months, jobs have been revised down by about 33k per month and revised lower by 56k over the last three months!
3 Month Compare | 12 Month Compare | 3 Year Compare | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Category | Current | As Of Published | Avg Month Diff | Current | As Of Published | Avg Month Diff | Current | As Of Published | Avg Month Diff |
Private Sector | |||||||||
Construction | 5 | 21 | -5.3 | 105 | 153 | -4.0 | 548 | 589 | -1.1 |
Education Health | 207 | 217 | -3.3 | 866 | 842 | 2.0 | 3,061 | 2,869 | 5.3 |
Financial | 10 | 31 | -7.0 | 81 | 128 | -3.9 | 189 | 269 | -2.2 |
Information | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | -12 | 18 | -2.5 | -140 | 2 | -3.9 |
Leisure Hospitality | 49 | 73 | -8.0 | 242 | 337 | -7.9 | 1,247 | 1,493 | -6.8 |
Manufacturing | -26 | -26 | 0.0 | -101 | -81 | -1.7 | -30 | 105 | -3.8 |
Mining and Logging | -3 | -7 | 1.3 | -2 | -7 | 0.4 | 12 | 12 | 0.0 |
Other Services | 2 | 6 | -1.3 | 60 | 67 | -0.6 | 357 | 309 | 1.3 |
Prof Business | -7 | -39 | 10.7 | -63 | 0 | -5.2 | 17 | 599 | -16.2 |
Trade Trans Utils | -35 | 18 | -17.7 | 140 | 197 | -4.8 | 397 | 664 | -7.4 |
Government | |||||||||
Government Federal | -48 | -41 | -2.3 | -57 | -47 | -0.8 | 91 | 64 | 0.8 |
Government Local | 24 | 51 | -9.0 | 196 | 213 | -1.4 | 943 | 808 | 3.8 |
Government State | 10 | 52 | -14.0 | 96 | 129 | -2.8 | 421 | 329 | 2.6 |
Total | |||||||||
All | 191 | 359 | -56.0 | 1,551 | 1,949 | -33.2 | 7,113 | 8,112 | -27.8 |
Values in 1,000s of workers. Because this data is focused on revisions, it is as of the month prior: Jun 2025. "Current" shows the change in employment after revisions. "As Of Published" shows change in employment at time of release. "Avg Month Diff" shows the average monthly change from the revisions. | |||||||||
Another level of detail in the Household report shows full-time vs part-time job holders. This month shows that full-time jobs were lost while part-time were gained.
Figure 8: Full Time vs Part Time
The chart below shows data going back to 1955.
Figure 9: Historical Labor Market
The labor force participation rate is still well below the highs before the Global Financial Crisis. This month it increased slightly to 62.2%.
Figure 10: Labor Market Distribution
No doubt, the two major takeaways from this report are:
When looking at an already weak jobs report, these two additional facts paint an even bleaker picture than what is being presented on the surface.