In a rare move, the Household survey outperformed the Headline Report for the second month in a row
This article first appeared on SchiffGold.
Note: This is the Jobs report for September that was released late on November 20th. There will be no October jobs report
The analysis below covers the Employment picture released on the first Friday of every month. While most of the attention goes to the Headline Report, it can be helpful to look at the details, revisions, and other reports to get a better gauge of what is really going on.
The jobs report showed a modest increase of 119k jobs. This month actually saw a big deviation in the Household Survey to the upside which is quite rare, although it was the second month in a row this happened with 251k. The Household Survey had 288k jobs. In most months, the Household Survey is underperforming the headline number.
Figure 1: Primary Report vs Household Survey - Monthly
For the year, the Household Survey is significantly higher due to the data anomaly in January. However, if we removed the data correction in January, the Household Survey would actually show a loss of 254k.
Figure 2: Primary Report vs Household Survey - Annual
Switching to the headline report…
The BLS publishes the data behind their Birth/Death assumptions (formation of new business). In September, the assumption was actually negative by 144k. This is quite rare but was a headwind for the September jobs report.
Figure 3: Primary Unadjusted Report With Birth Death Assumptions - Monthly
For the year, the birth death assumption is positive of 817k against a negative number for actuals (-1M). This means all positive growth YTD is directly tied to the birth/death assumptions.
Figure 4: Primary Unadjusted Report With Birth Death Assumptions - Monthly
The 119k jobs number was accompanied by a rise in the unemployment rate to 4.4%.
Figure 5: Change by sector
When looking at the last 12-month trend, 3 of the categories were above trend with 5 below (3 of which were negative).
Figure 6: Current vs TTM
The table below shows a detailed breakdown of the numbers.
Monthly Average Change | Total % Change | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Category | Total Employed | Current Month | 3 Months | 12 Months | 3 years | Current Month | 3 Months | 12 Months | 3 years |
Private Sector | |||||||||
Construction | 8,305 | 19 | 0.7 | 3.2 | 13.3 | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.5% | 5.8% |
Education Health | 27,511 | 59 | 60.7 | 68.6 | 82.3 | 0.2% | 0.7% | 3.0% | 10.8% |
Financial | 9,235 | 5 | -3.0 | 5.0 | 3.9 | 0.1% | -0.1% | 0.6% | 1.5% |
Information | 2,925 | 0 | -4.3 | -0.3 | -4.7 | 0.0% | -0.4% | -0.1% | -5.8% |
Leisure Hospitality | 17,104 | 47 | 29.3 | 19.6 | 29.4 | 0.3% | 0.5% | 1.4% | 6.2% |
Manufacturing | 12,706 | -6 | -10.0 | -7.8 | -3.9 | 0.0% | -0.2% | -0.7% | -1.1% |
Mining and Logging | 610 | -3 | -3.3 | -1.2 | -0.1 | -0.5% | -1.6% | -2.3% | -0.7% |
Other Services | 6,053 | -2 | 6.7 | 5.9 | 9.0 | 0.0% | 0.3% | 1.2% | 5.3% |
Prof Business | 22,513 | -20 | -16.7 | -5.2 | -6.1 | -0.1% | -0.2% | -0.3% | -1.0% |
Trade Trans Utils | 29,066 | -2 | -3.0 | 10.2 | 10.2 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.4% | 1.3% |
Government | |||||||||
Government Federal | 2,918 | -3 | -8.3 | -7.5 | 1.5 | -0.1% | -0.9% | -3.1% | 1.9% |
Government Local | 15,181 | 9 | 17.7 | 16.2 | 25.3 | 0.1% | 0.3% | 1.3% | 6.0% |
Government State | 5,499 | 16 | -4.0 | 2.6 | 9.8 | 0.3% | -0.2% | 0.6% | 6.4% |
Total | |||||||||
All | 159,626 | 119 | 62.3 | 109.3 | 169.8 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.8% | 3.8% |
Values in 1,000s of workers. Data as of: Sep 2025. Total Employed = Entire size of the labor market. | |||||||||
This is the biggest component of the jobs report. Every single month this year has seen negative revisions. May and June both saw +100k jobs come off the total with June actually turning negative. Both June and August are now showing negative job months where they had previously been positive.
Figure 7: Revisions
Over the last twelve months, jobs have been revised down by about 22k per month and revised lower by 53k over the last three months!
3 Month Compare | 12 Month Compare | 3 Year Compare | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Category | Current | As Of Published | Avg Month Diff | Current | As Of Published | Avg Month Diff | Current | As Of Published | Avg Month Diff |
Private Sector | |||||||||
Construction | -19 | 14 | -11.0 | 49 | 106 | -4.8 | 487 | 566 | -2.2 |
Education Health | 174 | 184 | -3.3 | 862 | 819 | 3.6 | 2,964 | 2,816 | 4.1 |
Financial | -20 | 17 | -12.3 | 60 | 114 | -4.5 | 142 | 262 | -3.3 |
Information | -16 | -7 | -3.0 | -4 | 16 | -1.7 | -167 | -23 | -4.0 |
Leisure Hospitality | 36 | 80 | -14.7 | 239 | 288 | -4.1 | 1,080 | 1,454 | -10.4 |
Manufacturing | -41 | -29 | -4.0 | -88 | -68 | -1.7 | -114 | 43 | -4.4 |
Mining and Logging | -9 | -13 | 1.3 | -9 | -19 | 0.8 | 1 | -7 | 0.2 |
Other Services | 16 | 12 | 1.3 | 80 | 72 | 0.7 | 347 | 295 | 1.4 |
Prof Business | -54 | -51 | -1.0 | -58 | -62 | 0.3 | -156 | 448 | -16.8 |
Trade Trans Utils | -20 | 11 | -10.3 | 156 | 182 | -2.2 | 330 | 596 | -7.4 |
Government | |||||||||
Government Federal | -31 | -30 | -0.3 | -83 | -68 | -1.2 | 62 | 46 | 0.4 |
Government Local | 71 | 18 | 17.7 | 199 | 196 | 0.2 | 908 | 834 | 2.1 |
Government State | -32 | 8 | -13.3 | 30 | 118 | -7.3 | 337 | 345 | -0.2 |
Total | |||||||||
All | 55 | 214 | -53.0 | 1,433 | 1,694 | -21.8 | 6,221 | 7,675 | -40.4 |
Values in 1,000s of workers. Because this data is focused on revisions, it is as of the month prior: Aug 2025. "Current" shows the change in employment after revisions. "As Of Published" shows change in employment at time of release. "Avg Month Diff" shows the average monthly change from the revisions. | |||||||||
Another level of detail in the Household report shows full-time vs part-time job holders. This month shows that full-time jobs were gained while part-time were lost
Figure 8: Full Time vs Part Time
The chart below shows data going back to 1955.
Figure 9: Historical Labor Market
The labor force participation rate is still well below the highs before the Global Financial Crisis. This month it increased slightly to 62.4%.
Figure 10: Labor Market Distribution
The jobs revisions are going nearly unnoticed by the overall market. Can you imagine how the market would have reacted had the initial release for June and August been negative? The labor market is very weak and the inflation is elevated. This puts the Fed in a really bad spot. They are going to cut rates regardless, if not in December, then at the next meeting.
AI combined with an already weak labor market will lead to a tough 2026 for employment.