Deliveries continue unabated and this could be the strongest December on record
This article first appeared on SchiffGold.
The CME Comex is the Exchange where futures are traded for gold, silver, and other commodities. The CME also allows futures buyers to turn their contracts into physical metal through delivery. You can find more detail on the CME here (e.g., vault types, major/minor months, delivery explanation, historical data, etc.).
The data below looks at contract delivery where the ownership of physical metal changes hands within CME vaults. It also shows data that details the movement of metal in and out of CME vaults. It is very possible that if there is a run on the dollar, and a flight into gold, this is the data that will show early warning signs.
The chart below shows the spread between the spot price of gold and the futures contract pricing. As you can see, it blew out earlier this year. This created the massive arbitrage that resulted in gold traveling from London to New York. When the spread between futures and spot gets distorted, it suggests there is dis-location in the market.
Figure 1: Spot vs Futures
Gold has seen solid delivery demand for the month of November. It is coming in below the massive volumes earlier this year during the arbitrage trade, but it stays well above the values prior to 2025.
Figure 2: Recent like-month delivery volume
For November, the delivery volume was even more surprising given how small delivery volume typically is for the fall month. See chart below to put notional deliveries in perspective. Yes, notional delivery also factors in the major price rise we have seen in 2025, but that alone cannot explain the outside delivery volume for November. Approximately $4.5B worth of gold was delivered! This was the highest November looking at 30+ years of data. And it was not even close!
Figure 3: Notional Deliveries
Net new contracts (contracts that open and settle for immediate delivery) was a driver. A little more than half the contracts delivered were net new, opening after the delivery window began.
Figure 4: Cumulative Net New Contracts
Perhaps the most important data point is the actual metal leaving Comex vaults. When metal is “delivered” it does not mean it’s leaving the Comex. It means that Registered ownership is moving from one party to another. When the metal leaves the vault, that is where things get interesting. As shown, this year saw a major influx as the arbitrage trade took hold, but that metal is now flowing back out.
Figure 5: Inventory Data
Looking ahead to the December delivery period, we see a contract that is hovering near the top range of all major months. Only February this year was higher at the same time period.
Figure 6: Open Interest Countdown
With the massive surge in inventory, the open interest relative to physical stocks is actually lower. This shows how much metal has been added to Comex vaults this year.
Figure 7: Open Interest Countdown Percent
Bottom line, November was very strong for a historically weak month. December is on par with the strongest month ever in terms of delivery volume.
The Comex saw unprecedented delivery volume in gold after the election as highlighted in previous articles. This was driven by an arbitrage between the spot and futures market. The opposite has now occurred in Silver. Silver saw spikes that forced metal to be flown to New York from London. The spike down shown below, caused metal to be flown to London from New York. This was to help address a silver squeeze that happened as bullion supplies dropped in London.
Figure 8: Spot vs Futures
Similar to gold, silver is a minor month in November. Delivery volume came in elevated but could not compare with the incredibly strong October delivery.
Figure 9: Recent like-month delivery volume
Switching to notional values, and focusing on the month of November, produces the chart below. Again, some of this is price appreciation, but it is also an increased appetite for deliveries. In 30 years of delivery data, the notional amount is almost 5x higher than any previous November on record.
Figure 10: Notional Deliveries
Similar to gold, net new contracts were a driver this month.
Figure 11: Cumulative Net New Contracts
Silver eligible inventories are seeing outflows with 33M ounces leaving the Comex since mid-October.
Figure 12: Inventory Data
Registered has also seen a big drop, shedding almost 50M ounces in a short period.
Figure 13: Inventory Data
As we approach December, the silver contract is following golds lead and showing elevated interest as the delivery period approaches.
Figure 14: Open Interest Countdown
On a relative basis, open interest is in a normal range, but that is only because of the elevated inventory levels.
Figure 15: Open Interest Countdown Percent
Earlier this year, there was massive delivery in gold and London had to help ease physical pressures. The same happened with silver but in reverse as the Comex came to rescue London. This data is ringing the alarm bells. Physical supplies are stretched and people are waking up to this fact. Both metals have entered a much needed price consolidation, but the fundamentals that drove the price spikes are very much at play.
Bottom line, there is not enough physical silver and gold to satisfy global demand. The game of musical chairs has started and it is far from over. With December looking strong in both metals, an already exciting year, might have even more in store for us. Given the demand picture, it’s hard to think gold and silver won’t finish near or above $4,000 and $50. A yearly close above these prices would signify a lot of strength heading into 2026.