Silver and gold are both moving without managed money participation
This article first appeared on SchiffGold.
Please note: the CoTs report was published 12/23/2025 for the period ending 12/16/2025. “Managed Money” and “Hedge Funds” are used interchangeably.
The Commitment of Traders report is a weekly publication that shows the breakdown of ownership in the Futures market. For every contract, there is a long and a short, so the net positioning will always be zero, but the report shows who is positioned long or short. Historically, Hedge Funds (Managed Money) dominate the price action in both Gold and Silver.
Below shows net positioning for the 5 main groups of futures holders. Net positioning reached multi-year highs last September, in February, and again recently in October. The October price shake-out (12% drop) created a very quick closure of contracts. Positioning has not yet returned to October highs (as of 12/16).
Figure 1: Net Position by Holder
Managed Money has been in complete control of the price action for years, driving the spikes in both directions. The overall upward trend is beyond the control of Managed Money but the short-term moves are very much tied to the action of Managed Money.
That has changed in dramatically 2025 as the Managed Money group has been liquidating positions even as prices have continued rising. Managed Money contracts dropped from 160k in September to 92k contracts in October. That type of liqudiation would usually bring an absolute hammer to the price of gold. This time though, it was a shallow correction that quickly reversed. I cannot stress this enough Managed Money is no longer in control of this market.
Figure 2: Managed Money Net Position
After the October price correction, Managed Money waited but has gotten back in board in recent weeks.
The activity in the options market remains incredibly quiet despite gold sitting at all-time highs. There is no speculation in this market right now which further strengthens the bull. Has the price gotten extremely stretched? Absolutely! But it is NOT driven by speculative traders that bail at the first sign of trouble. The price is being driven by the physical market this time, and that means we have entered a whole new dynamic.
Figure 3: Options Positions
Silver has exploded to new all-time highs, even as total net positioning has fallen.
Figure 4: Net Position by Holder
Managed Money has completely lost control of the market. Even as recently as 6 months ago, Managed Money was driving this bus, but that is no longer the case. High margin rates at the Comex have likely created some of the reduction in contracts, but there could be other drivers. Regardless, speculative money has exited this market and the prices has still blasted to new all-time highs.
Figure 5: Managed Money Net Position
Managed Money has been mostly exiting the market.
Figure 6: Net Change in Positioning
The options market is the only indication of speculative activity and that has only appeared in the month of December.
Figure 7: Options Positions
The table below says it all. You can see that positioning by Managed Moned has historically had a very strong correlation to price action. Not anymore. The correlation did not just drop; it actually turned negative. Prices are no longer being controlled by Managed Money.
I have been tracking this data along with Comex data for years. I have always said this data would be the early warning signs something is changing. Earlier this year the Comex data started flashing red. The move that followed has been historic. Now everyone is calling this a blow-off top. Does the price need a correction? Absolutely! In fact, a continued move higher would make me more medium term bearish. Prices need time to consolidate and correct, even when price discovery is being explored.
Still, the most important part of this analysis is simple: prices are not being driven by short-term holders. The hot money has nothing to do with this rally. That means a floor and a base is being built that will not become undone. A correction back to $50 is certainly not impossible, but dips will be buying opportunities going forward.
Correlation Between Net Positioning and Price | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Gold Mng Money | Gold Other | Silver Mng Money | Silver Other |
2017 | 0.89 | -0.76 | 0.84 | -0.32 |
2018 | 0.95 | -0.74 | 0.63 | -0.62 |
2019 | 0.96 | 0.57 | 0.82 | -0.78 |
2020 | -0.80 | 0.64 | 0.35 | -0.81 |
2021 | 0.82 | -0.03 | 0.86 | -0.60 |
2022 | 0.95 | 0.58 | 0.96 | -0.54 |
2023 | 0.77 | 0.22 | 0.86 | -0.11 |
2024 | 0.90 | -0.09 | 0.75 | 0.22 |
2025 | -0.67 | 0.54 | -0.44 | -0.28 |
Since 2017 | 0.28 | 0.23 | 0.22 | 0.18 |
Values show correlation between the price movement and net positioning by Managed Money and Other. 1.0 represents a perfectly positive correlation. | ||||