A weak number raises more concern for the job market
This article first appeared on SchiffGold.
The analysis below covers the Employment picture released on the first Friday of every month. While most of the attention goes to the Headline Report, it can be helpful to look at the details, revisions, and other reports to get a better gauge of what is really going on.
The jobs report showed a very modest increase of 50k jobs in December This followed an estimated loss of 173k jobs in October and only 56k jobs added in November. The Household Survey report was actually much higher at 232k jobs for the month of December.
Figure 1: Primary Report vs Household Survey - Monthly
For the year, the Household Survey is significantly higher due to the data anomaly in January. This was a one time event, but the Household Report has been over performing this year. March, April, June, August, September, November, and December all saw beats by the Household Survey. Not all of these were beats at the time, but the downward revisions of the Headline Report have been severe enough to create the underperformance.
Figure 2: Primary Report vs Household Survey - Annual
Switching to the headline report…
The BLS publishes the data behind their Birth/Death assumptions (formation of new business). In December, the BLS assumed a loss of 67k jobs which is on top of a loss of 125k for the baseline number.
Figure 3: Primary Unadjusted Report With Birth Death Assumptions - Monthly
For the year, the birth death assumption is a positive 1.15M against negative actuals of -633k. This means all positive growth YTD is directly tied to the birth/death assumptions.
Figure 4: Primary Unadjusted Report With Birth Death Assumptions - Monthly
Unfortunately, despite being highly unreliable, the Headline report is the best data we have for the more recent periods. Furthermore, this is the data the Fed uses to shape its policy. The 50k jobs number was accompanied by a fall in the unemployment rate to 4.4%.
Figure 5: Change by sector
When looking at the last 12-month trend, only 3 of the categories were actually above trend with 5 below.
Figure 6: Current vs TTM
The table below shows a detailed breakdown of the numbers.
Monthly Average Change | Total % Change | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Category | Total Employed | Current Month | 3 Months | 12 Months | 3 years | Current Month | 3 Months | 12 Months | 3 years |
Private Sector | |||||||||
Construction | 8,303 | -11 | -0.7 | 1.2 | 11.4 | -0.1% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 5.0% |
Education Health | 27,640 | 41 | 47.0 | 59.1 | 79.5 | 0.1% | 0.5% | 2.6% | 10.4% |
Financial | 9,244 | 7 | 2.7 | 3.2 | 2.9 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 1.1% |
Information | 2,914 | 0 | -3.3 | -2.5 | -4.8 | 0.0% | -0.3% | -1.0% | -5.9% |
Leisure Hospitality | 17,167 | 47 | 25.7 | 15.7 | 25.7 | 0.3% | 0.4% | 1.1% | 5.4% |
Manufacturing | 12,692 | -8 | -6.3 | -5.7 | -5.5 | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.5% | -1.6% |
Mining and Logging | 608 | -2 | -1.0 | -1.3 | -0.5 | -0.3% | -0.5% | -2.6% | -3.0% |
Other Services | 6,064 | 5 | 4.7 | 5.2 | 8.1 | 0.1% | 0.2% | 1.0% | 4.8% |
Prof Business | 22,517 | -9 | -4.0 | -8.1 | -7.6 | 0.0% | -0.1% | -0.4% | -1.2% |
Trade Trans Utils | 28,966 | -33 | -35.3 | -5.6 | 6.1 | -0.1% | -0.4% | -0.2% | 0.8% |
Government | |||||||||
Government Federal | 2,738 | 2 | -58.0 | -22.8 | -3.8 | 0.1% | -6.4% | -10.0% | -4.9% |
Government Local | 15,206 | 18 | 12.7 | 14.2 | 23.4 | 0.1% | 0.2% | 1.1% | 5.5% |
Government State | 5,467 | -7 | -6.3 | -3.8 | 9.2 | -0.1% | -0.3% | -0.8% | 6.1% |
Total | |||||||||
All | 159,526 | 50 | -22.3 | 48.7 | 144.2 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.4% | 3.3% |
Values in 1,000s of workers. Data as of: Dec 2025. Total Employed = Entire size of the labor market. | |||||||||
This is the biggest story of the jobs report. Every single month in 2025 has seen negative revisions. This destroys the credibility and integrity of the report. Several months saw massive downward revisions such as March, May, June, August, and now November. Revisions cut the numbers in half or even brought the job growth negative.
Figure 7: Revisions
Over the last twelve months, jobs have been revised down by about 59k per month and revised lower by 80.7k over the last three months!
3 Month Compare | 12 Month Compare | 3 Year Compare | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Category | Current | As Of Published | Avg Month Diff | Current | As Of Published | Avg Month Diff | Current | As Of Published | Avg Month Diff |
Private Sector | |||||||||
Construction | 34 | 36 | -0.7 | 40 | 105 | -5.4 | 450 | 562 | -3.1 |
Education Health | 156 | 165 | -3.0 | 751 | 789 | -3.2 | 2,867 | 2,761 | 2.9 |
Financial | 7 | 10 | -1.0 | 43 | 102 | -4.9 | 105 | 250 | -4.0 |
Information | -13 | -4 | -3.0 | -13 | 9 | -1.8 | -191 | -50 | -3.9 |
Leisure Hospitality | 72 | 82 | -3.3 | 188 | 274 | -7.2 | 920 | 1,366 | -12.4 |
Manufacturing | -16 | -19 | 1.0 | -70 | -57 | -1.1 | -196 | -16 | -5.0 |
Mining and Logging | -4 | -9 | 1.7 | -15 | -28 | 1.1 | -14 | -16 | 0.1 |
Other Services | 4 | 6 | -0.7 | 64 | 71 | -0.6 | 300 | 270 | 0.8 |
Prof Business | -11 | -17 | 2.0 | -52 | -38 | -1.2 | -271 | 406 | -18.8 |
Trade Trans Utils | -74 | -47 | -9.0 | 47 | 161 | -9.5 | 272 | 569 | -8.2 |
Government | |||||||||
Government Federal | -180 | -7 | -57.7 | -273 | -71 | -16.8 | -139 | 37 | -4.9 |
Government Local | 20 | 25 | -1.7 | 166 | 176 | -0.8 | 851 | 789 | 1.7 |
Government State | -4 | 12 | -5.3 | -19 | 76 | -7.9 | 312 | 337 | -0.7 |
Total | |||||||||
All | -9 | 233 | -80.7 | 857 | 1,569 | -59.3 | 5,266 | 7,265 | -55.5 |
Values in 1,000s of workers. Because this data is focused on revisions, it is as of the month prior: Nov 2025. "Current" shows the change in employment after revisions. "As Of Published" shows change in employment at time of release. "Avg Month Diff" shows the average monthly change from the revisions. | |||||||||
Another level of detail in the Household report shows full-time vs part-time job holders. This month shows that full-time jobs were gained while part-time were lost
Figure 8: Full Time vs Part Time
The chart below shows data going back to 1955.
Figure 9: Historical Labor Market
The labor force participation rate is still well below the highs before the Global Financial Crisis. This month it increased slightly to 62.4%.
Figure 10: Labor Market Distribution
The jobs revisions have gotten so bad that even Jerome Powell has said something about it. In the report last month, the QCEW showed an even more dire picture. Not only are the reports weak, but the downward revisions show an even weaker economy combined with a report that people can no longer trust.