The deficit was smaller than 2024, but spending was still growing
This article first appeared on SchiffGold.
The Federal Government publishes the spending and revenue numbers on a monthly basis. The charts and tables below give an in depth review of the Federal Budget, showing where the money is coming from, where it is going to, and the surplus or deficit.
The government fiscal year closes at the end of September, but this analysis will look at the calendar year budget. As shown below, the last three months saw large deficits, all exceeding $145B. In the most recent period, December had a $145B deficit vs last December where the deficit was only $87B.
Figure 1: Monthly Federal Budget
Looking at the average monthly deficit, both October and December were much larger than average with November coming in slightly below.
Figure 2: Current vs Historical
We can look at the quarter in aggregate using the Sankey diagram below that shows the very large $602B deficit (annualized to $2.4T)!
The big concern with the chart below is how much Interest Expense has moved up, making up 14.8% of all spending in Q4. The deficit makes up 33% of all spending, which means that the US borrows 1 in every 3 dollars it spends. No wonder gold and silver continue to move up by leaps and bounds!
Figure 3: Quarterly Federal Budget Sankey
This latest quarter was the worst quarter of the year, but it was slightly better than Q4 last year.
Figure 4: Quarterly Historical Deficit/Surplus for Previous Five Years
The next two charts show the quarterly revenue and costs broken down by expense type. You can see the impact of the tariff revenue below, reaching $90B in the latest quarter. As shown, it’s clear this is not going to move the needle enough to make a difference on the total deficit.
Figure 5: Quarterly Receipts
On the flip side, you can see that spending has flatlined some over the last 8 quarters. While still very high, it’s good that it is not growing.
Figure 6: Quarterly Outlays
Interest Expense has ballooned higher to $999B on a trailing twelve month basis. This is deadly for the budget. $1T a year in just interest expense is a massive thorn in the side of the US government.
Figure 7: TTM Interest Expense
Zooming out and looking over the history of the budget back to 2016 shows a more complete picture. The change since Covid is quite dramatic. In 2019, the deficit was $1.02T. In 2025, it was $1.66T. Ironically, this is down from the $2T+ in 2024.
Figure 8: Trailing 12 Months (TTM)
The next two charts zoom in on the recent periods to show the change when compared to pre-Covid. These charts show spending and revenue on a trailing 12 month basis period over period. The last 12-months was a record revenue number, so was spending but it did not grow as fast.
Figure 9: Annual Federal Receipts
Figure 10: Annual Federal Expenses
Finally, we finish with a Sankey showing TTM Deficit was -$1.67T which is a massive issue going forward, representing 23.7% of all government spending. The government cannot afford to keep printing such massive debt figures.
Figure 11: TTM Federal Budget Sankey