Silver is beating to a slightly different drum
This article first appeared on SchiffGold.
Please note: the CoTs report was published 03/27/2026 for the period ending 03/24/2026. “Managed Money” and “Hedge Funds” are used interchangeably.
The Commitment of Traders report is a weekly publication that shows the breakdown of ownership in the Futures market. For every contract, there is a long and a short, so the net positioning will always be zero, but the report shows who is positioned long or short. Historically, Hedge Funds (Managed Money) dominate the price action in both Gold and Silver.
Below shows net positioning for the 5 main groups of futures holders. Net positioning took a major step down at the end of January right during the first big sell-off in gold. It is clear that this was the big driver of the move on the last trading day of January. This was speculative money getting washed out.
However, the move since the Iran war started was not speculative money. The open interest barely changed in the big price drop. It seems more likely this was actual selling, such as Turkey selling a vast amount of physical gold from reserves.
Figure 1: Net Position by Holder
Managed Money has been in complete control of the price action for years, driving the spikes in both directions. The overall upward trend is beyond the control of Managed Money but the short-term moves are very much tied to the action of Managed Money.
That changed dramatically in 2025 as the Managed Money group has been liquidating positions even as prices have continued rising. Managed Money may have been a driver of the initial sell-off in January, but they have been very quiet since. Again, this implies that the move from the Iran War has not been speculative traders.
Figure 2: Managed Money Net Position
In the latest week, there was some liquidations from Managed Money as the gold price finally broke $5,000 but it was very small by any historical standard. This move would not have been enough to bring the gold price from $5100 to $4400.
The activity in the options market remains relatively quiet despite all the recent volatility in gold. There has been a general uptick since 2024 but nothing material has changed since 2026 has started.
Figure 3: Options Positions
Similar to gold, silver has seen general open interest decrease as the price increased. Some of this is related to higher margins making it more expensive to hold contracts. Regardless, Open Interest was falling as the price was going up and up.
Figure 4: Net Position by Holder
Unlike gold, which saw the steep drop in Managed Money right during the big price drop in January, silver was seeing speculative money steadily buy all during January. In fact, the week of the massive price drop in January only saw a few thousand contracts liquidated, which is really nothing in the big scheme. So, while the gold washout may have been driven by speculative money, the silver washout was not. It may have been that silver was just overstretched and then followed gold lower, but in a big way.
Another interesting point is seeing the managed money increasing their position each week following the January spike down. Thus, while silver prices have remained under pressure, Managed Money has been buying the entire time.
Figure 5: Managed Money Net Position
Despite the buying, you can see in the weekly chart below that this buying has been relatively modest by historical standards.
Figure 6: Net Change in Positioning
Unlike gold, the silver options market has seen much greater activity in recent months. This is exactly where the speculative trading could have been driving the market. The futures market is still significantly larger than the options market, but there is certainly a possibility that the action here was having an outsize move on the price.
Figure 7: Options Positions
The data is pretty clear here:
The table below shows the correlation of Managed Money and Other to the price moves. While Managed Money is usually highly correlated to the price action, this relationship reversed in 2025; prices rose as Managed Money liquidated. So far, in 2026, the correlation has dropped to zero for silver but remains negative for gold.
With Managed Money having very low exposure, it would seem there is a lot of money that could push up the price. Friday was a very strong day in metals: the stock market sold off, the DXY rose, and gold rose. This is the exact price action that shows gold and silver may have bottomed. The positioning of Managed Money along with the activity at the Comex further supports this case. This dip is a buying opportunity that might not last long!
Correlation Between Net Positioning and Price | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Gold Mng Money | Gold Other | Silver Mng Money | Silver Other |
2017 | 0.89 | -0.76 | 0.84 | -0.32 |
2018 | 0.95 | -0.74 | 0.63 | -0.62 |
2019 | 0.96 | 0.57 | 0.82 | -0.78 |
2020 | -0.80 | 0.64 | 0.35 | -0.81 |
2021 | 0.82 | -0.03 | 0.86 | -0.60 |
2022 | 0.95 | 0.58 | 0.96 | -0.54 |
2023 | 0.77 | 0.22 | 0.86 | -0.11 |
2024 | 0.90 | -0.09 | 0.75 | 0.22 |
2025 | -0.64 | 0.58 | -0.52 | -0.30 |
2026 | -0.40 | -0.65 | -0.02 | 0.03 |
Since 2017 | 0.24 | 0.17 | 0.06 | 0.18 |
Values show correlation between the price movement and net positioning by Managed Money and Other. 1.0 represents a perfectly positive correlation. | ||||