Downward revisions continue to challenge the reliability of the Headline Report
This article first appeared on SchiffGold.
The analysis below covers the Employment picture released on the first Friday of every month. While most of the attention goes to the Headline Report, it can be helpful to look at the details, revisions, and other reports to get a better gauge of what is really going on.
The jobs report showed a gain of 178k jobs for the month of March. While that beat expectations, it will most likely be revised down in future months. Furthermore, the Household Survey showed a loss of 64k jobs. This is another consistent trend: the Household Survey continuously underperforming the Headline Report.
Figure 1: Primary Report vs Household Survey - Monthly
To show the magnitude of this underperformance, consider the chart below. YTD, the Headline Report shows a gain of 205k jobs where the Household Survey shows a loss of 1.4M jobs.
Figure 2: Primary Report vs Household Survey - Annual
The BLS publishes the data behind their Birth/Death assumptions (formation of new business). The data showed that the BLS assumed a job loss of 47k jobs in March.
Figure 3: Primary Unadjusted Report With Birth Death Assumptions - Monthly
For the year, the birth death assumption is -18k jobs.
Figure 4: Primary Unadjusted Report With Birth Death Assumptions - Monthly
The big report released today is the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW). According to the BLS, this is a far more accurate and rigorous report covering 95% of jobs available at a highly detailed level. Due to the rigor, the report is released quarterly on a several month lag.
The latest report is for Q2 2025. As shown, June was a massive underperformer while April and May overperformed.
Figure 5: Primary Report vs QCEW - Yearly
This QCEW data reveals a shocking discrepancy with the Headline Report. The chart below sums up everything you need to know about the Headline Report. Compared to the more accurate QCEW, the QCEW was 93% below the Headline Report! For context the next biggest miss was in 2024 where the QCEW was 34% below. That was a record at the time. This is a disaster on every level. The Headline Report, after revisions, is showing 333k jobs gained for the year, while the QCEW shows a mere 27k jobs. Those numbers are not even close.
Figure 6: Primary Report vs QCEW - Yearly
Unfortunately, despite being highly unreliable, the Headline report is the best data we have for the more recent periods. Furthermore, this is the data the Fed uses to shape its policy. The 178k jobs gained is the third best month since September 2024.
Figure 7: Change by sector
When looking at the last 12-month trend, you can see that every job category was above trend except for Other. As for the trend, 5 of 8 categories are actually negative over the last year.
Figure 8: Current vs TTM
The table below shows a detailed breakdown of the numbers.
Monthly Average Change | Total % Change | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Category | Total Employed | Current Month | 3 Months | 12 Months | 3 years | Current Month | 3 Months | 12 Months | 3 years |
Private Sector | |||||||||
Construction | 8,330 | 26 | 19.3 | 4.8 | 11.2 | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 4.8% |
Education Health | 27,795 | 91 | 56.0 | 55.2 | 76.7 | 0.3% | 0.6% | 2.4% | 9.9% |
Financial | 9,134 | -15 | -17.3 | -5.6 | -0.4 | -0.2% | -0.6% | -0.7% | -0.2% |
Information | 2,791 | -3 | -17.0 | -6.3 | -7.2 | -0.1% | -1.8% | -2.7% | -9.2% |
Leisure Hospitality | 16,999 | 44 | 12.7 | 14.7 | 15.2 | 0.3% | 0.2% | 1.0% | 3.2% |
Manufacturing | 12,591 | 15 | 3.7 | -6.2 | -8.2 | 0.1% | 0.1% | -0.6% | -2.4% |
Mining and Logging | 603 | 2 | -0.3 | -1.4 | -0.9 | 0.3% | -0.2% | -2.8% | -5.1% |
Other Services | 6,022 | -9 | -0.3 | 2.9 | 6.5 | -0.1% | 0.0% | 0.6% | 3.9% |
Prof Business | 22,417 | 2 | 15.0 | -3.3 | -11.5 | 0.0% | 0.2% | -0.2% | -1.9% |
Trade Trans Utils | 28,638 | 33 | 7.3 | -12.8 | -4.6 | 0.1% | 0.1% | -0.5% | -0.6% |
Government | |||||||||
Government Federal | 2,658 | -18 | -21.3 | -27.5 | -6.5 | -0.7% | -2.4% | -12.4% | -8.8% |
Government Local | 15,183 | 14 | 10.7 | 11.2 | 20.2 | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.9% | 4.8% |
Government State | 5,476 | -4 | 0.0 | -3.9 | 6.8 | -0.1% | 0.0% | -0.9% | 4.5% |
Total | |||||||||
All | 158,637 | 178 | 68.3 | 21.7 | 97.3 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 2.2% |
Values in 1,000s of workers. Data as of: Mar 2026. Total Employed = Entire size of the labor market. | |||||||||
This is the biggest story of the jobs report. After all the revisions, the job picture is significantly bleaker than the data originally showed. Every month shown below saw a negative revision except for January of this year. For February, the original 92k jobs lost has been revised to a loss of 133k.
Figure 9: Revisions
Over the last twelve months, jobs have been revised down by about 90k per month!
3 Month Compare | 12 Month Compare | 3 Year Compare | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Category | Current | As Of Published | Avg Month Diff | Current | As Of Published | Avg Month Diff | Current | As Of Published | Avg Month Diff |
Private Sector | |||||||||
Construction | 25 | 48 | -7.7 | 37 | 122 | -7.1 | 361 | 533 | -4.8 |
Education Health | 115 | 194 | -26.3 | 640 | 769 | -10.8 | 2,748 | 2,698 | 1.4 |
Financial | -36 | -27 | -3.0 | -50 | 34 | -7.0 | -3 | 213 | -6.0 |
Information | -54 | -26 | -9.3 | -82 | -34 | -4.0 | -254 | -41 | -5.9 |
Leisure Hospitality | 19 | 18 | 0.3 | 159 | 268 | -9.1 | 524 | 1,084 | -15.6 |
Manufacturing | -17 | 8 | -8.3 | -95 | -49 | -3.8 | -322 | -31 | -8.1 |
Mining and Logging | -4 | -2 | -0.7 | -21 | -25 | 0.3 | -32 | -24 | -0.2 |
Other Services | 16 | 6 | 3.3 | 54 | 48 | 0.5 | 246 | 235 | 0.3 |
Prof Business | 24 | 31 | -2.3 | -58 | -22 | -3.0 | -422 | 316 | -20.5 |
Trade Trans Utils | -44 | 22 | -22.0 | -201 | 75 | -23.0 | -240 | 463 | -19.5 |
Government | |||||||||
Government Federal | -57 | -62 | 1.7 | -321 | -138 | -15.2 | -211 | -38 | -4.8 |
Government Local | 24 | 23 | 0.3 | 132 | 141 | -0.8 | 736 | 724 | 0.3 |
Government State | -1 | -17 | 5.3 | -45 | 46 | -7.6 | 262 | 298 | -1.0 |
Total | |||||||||
All | 10 | 216 | -68.7 | 149 | 1,235 | -90.5 | 3,393 | 6,430 | -84.4 |
Values in 1,000s of workers. Because this data is focused on revisions, it is as of the month prior: Feb 2026. "Current" shows the change in employment after revisions. "As Of Published" shows change in employment at time of release. "Avg Month Diff" shows the average monthly change from the revisions. | |||||||||
Another level of detail in the Household report shows full-time vs part-time job holders. The data shows full time jobs being added in March.
Figure 10: Full Time vs Part Time
The chart below shows data going back to 1955.
Figure 11: Historical Labor Market
The labor force participation rate is still well below the highs before the Global Financial Crisis. This month showed it falling to 61.9%, the lowest level since 2021.
Figure 12: Labor Market Distribution
Ignore the unexpected positive job growth this month. The full data shows a very negative picture.
This is the sign of an economy hanging by a thread.